Dr. Kenneth McDonagh:

I have always told them that from Ireland, everything is eastern and that is how I get away with that. The Deputy is right in that the eastern member states very much see the transatlantic alliance as the core and foundation of their security, largely because they can count and can see what the capabilities are and what would be lost were the US to be outside of that and that stands even with Trump. This goes back to the point that Deputy Ó Murchú had raised that Trump is transactional. He can essentially be bribed or it can be made worth his while in terms of weapons orders for the US defence industry and perhaps even direct transactions and things like that. In some ways, his lack of principles means that it can be managed and there is not much uncertainty when it comes to the fundamentals of the security issue. Moreover, it reflects the paucity of capabilities in an EU context. This ties back to the role the UK plays because those member states see the UK as an essential partner when it comes to their defence and argue very strongly for the incorporation of the UK in many of these initiatives, particularly working through NATO.

On the issue of debt, the Deputy is correct that Germany is one of the states that is strongly resistant to the idea of defence bonds and generating EU debt on this. The trade-off for that and as Professor Tonra pointed out, there are costs to not taking action and not putting those institutional financial supports in place and its a question for member states as to where the balance stands in their decisions in relation to those costs. Very quickly on Ireland then, a false paradise zone is a nice way of putting it. Deputy Howlin is right that we are not going to determine the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine and we are not going to determine the future of European security and defence but we should take some steps to determine our own security and defence. These initiatives, though they may not deliver everything that the EU needs or perhaps wants, will provide structures that will allow Ireland to start to achieve and build up its own capabilities and capacities to address the threats that we face.