Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 15 May 2024

Joint Oireachtas Committee on European Union Affairs

Recent Developments in the EU on Security and Defence: Discussion

Dr. Kenneth McDonagh:

I will just add air power to that, which is the obvious one from a military-technological point of view but I agree with Professor Tonra that it is about shifting the cost calculation. What Russia is testing at the moment is what level of cost is it going to inflict on Ukraine to achieve its objectives and how much is it willing to bear. At the moment, it is showing surprising resilience. Many people were not expecting Russia to do quite so well, particularly on upping its own military production and sourcing from North Korea, Iran and elsewhere to increase its stockpiles. Therefore, we need to shift that calculation back. The fact that it is opening a second front indicates it feels there is an opportunity now while there is a gap between the delayed support of the US coming in and Ukraine's ability to respond to that. I also will highlight Professor Tonra's point that there are different positions among member states between those that are willing to keep this going for as long as possible versus states that view the threat very differently and think that some kind of decisive victory for Ukraine is necessary. What that would look like is a restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity along international borders.

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