Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 15 May 2024

Joint Oireachtas Committee on European Union Affairs

Recent Developments in the EU on Security and Defence: Discussion

Professor Ben Tonra:

The Deputy's question on how much is enough in regard to support for Ukraine is very well taken. A fascinating dance can be seen going on between some prime ministers who say they want Ukraine to win and others who say they will be alongside Ukraine for as long as it takes. There is an interesting psychology going on there. The Deputy's point about nuclear blackmail is absolutely well taken but by the same token, does that mean that no nuclear power can ever be confronted with the reality of its own mistakes? The Deputy is right, in that it is part of a Russian strategy which we have seen in Georgia and Moldova and which we could very well see play out in the Baltics. The scenarios are so blindingly obvious it is quite terrifying. When talking to people, as I am sure Dr. McDonagh also has, who know Russia, Russian politics and Russian foreign policy, the issue is deterrents. If Russia sees a serious block to its ambitions, it does back off. The problem has been that European governments have been so quick to take things off the table by saying they are not going to do this, that or the other, that Russia has said all right, let us push a little further. The analysis from Russian policy experts is that to deter Russia, complete solidarity has to be shown and Russia has to be shown that there are costs associated with the actions it is going to take. I will leave it to Dr. McDonagh to do the other ones.

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