Dr. David Duffy:

The figure of 50,000 to 60,000 is reached though similar analysis to that which underpins the comments that Mr. Farrell made. Stronger than expected growth in population has been shown in the census. We look at average household size and assume it is declining. Over the longer term we have seen average household size in Ireland decline. There was a pause in this between the census in 2011 and that in 2016 but research shows this was due to economic factors rather than behavioural changes. If we take account of a higher population, a resumption of a decline in average household size, and allow for obsolescence or replacement of stock that becomes obsolescent, it pushes up the numbers to 50,000 to 60,000. Again, it depends on the assumption on average household size. It shows that the need is greater than previously anticipated. We must also include stronger migration flows, which is something that is difficult to forecast. All of these factors point to a higher demand than previously anticipated.