Mr. Pat Farrell:

The HNDA is a tool that was developed in relatively recent times under the aegis of the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage, and the idea was to put some science and process behind the estimation of the housing need across various planning areas. The problem, as we have observed it in reality, is that the HNDA tool is being used as a ceiling instead of a floor. Second, we are working off the wrong set of numbers. We were the first organisation to clearly call this out. We had an extensive study done in 2020, which is nearly three years ago, by Professor Ronan Lyons. In that study we examined the failure to take into account headship conversion rates, or in other words the number of people per household converging to the European norm because we are outliers in that respect, and obsolescence. When both of those were factored in, the number of homes we need to deliver on an annual basis is 47,000, not 33,000.

In the first instance the housing need and demand assessment process is working off an underambitious number of 33,000 houses per annum. In recent weeks the Housing Commission has mentioned a range of 40,000 to 60,000 houses per annum. It is unpublished but attributed and we must accept that it is valid. There is general consensus that we need approximately 50,000 houses per annum. This is not reflected in the housing need and demand assessment.

Deputy Ó Broin mentioned judicial reviews. There has been some activity in this area and there are a number of reviews. There is a particular judicial review, and I do not want to speak about it too much because of what it is, challenging the housing need and demand assessment process in a number of counties contiguous to Dublin. These are counties that traditionally provided additional housing stock to cater for the demands of the metropolitan area. My understanding is the housing need and demand assessments for these counties are based more or less on the county's indigenous needs, if we can call them that, rather than taking into account the traditional migration from the metropolitan area of people who want to acquire their first home. All of these have caused issues. In short, it is baking in undersupply.