Dr. Eddie Casey:

We looked at the potential economic impact based on how many people tend to be employed in the top ten corporate groups which account for most of the corporation tax paid. The economic impacts would not be that big. We are looking at a scenario where the impact of the hit to growth would be approximately 1%. That reflects the fact that while genuine and real activities are being undertaken by these companies on the ground, they tend to not have a massive employment outlay. Even when we try to take account of supporting sectors that benefit from the multinationals being present in Ireland, we still do not see a major impact in respect of employment. Most of the impact comes purely from the hit to corporate tax. In that context, we would be looking at five of the large companies leaving Ireland, meaning that we could lose corporation tax receipts of €3 billion annually.

On the policy front, we are not saying that we must adjust things immediately in this regard. We are stating that the plans are poorly founded. This was something we saw prior to Covid-19. It is not just the pandemic which is leading to bad planning over the medium term. We are stating that we must think about what the plan is for corporate tax in the long run. If we get more corporate tax in the future, beyond what is predicted by the Department of Finance, then we should have a plan for how to set those funds aside rather than allowing the over-reliance on such receipts to build even further.