Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 23 March 2021

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Pre-Stability Programme Update: Discussion

Dr. Mark Cassidy:

Our main responsibility in this areas relates to our active contribution to the monetary policy of the euro system. It is clear that the accommodative monetary policy reflected in low, zero and, in some instances, negative interest rates, as well as very significant asset purchases, has had a significant downward impact on Government borrowing costs, which are at around zero at the moment. That largely reflects ECB monetary policy actions to which we can contribute. In addition to the direct effect on sovereign borrowing costs, there is the effect on lending costs of financial institutions, which depend more than anything on those sovereign yields. The third effect is that the ECB's monetary policy is having a positive impact on the economic performance of the euro area as a whole and we benefit, in a secondary way, through spillovers from that positive growth. That is currently having a very significant effect and we published some analysis of that yesterday. The analysis shows that for both Ireland and the euro area, the results are roughly similar. Output this year is around 1.5% higher than it would be in the absence of this monetary policy.

I have just outlined the actions that have already been taken. What I would say about the recovery period is that the ECB is committed to ensuring that this accommodative monetary policy remains in place. The asset purchases will continue until at least March 2022 and longer, if necessary. Similarly, the guidance is that the interest rate environment will remain low until the recovery is established. It is very clear, through the monetary policy to which we contribute, that we are having and will continue to have a significant effect.

Our other responsibility is in the area of providing economic analysis and comment. Our public comments with regard to the public finances are very supportive of the idea that additional policy measures are required and that there is a role for fiscal policy in supporting the recovery, enhancing the productive capacity and reducing the scarring effects. We are very supportive of Government actions in that regard. I hope that answers the Deputy's question.

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