Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

Typically, when we discuss the outlook of the economy, we have a baseline forecast, which is our forecast of how the economy will evolve if Brexit does not happen.

As I said earlier, we think the underlying economy and the headline economy have both grown strongly in 2019. While we expect that the economy will continue to grow quite strongly next year, we do not think it will grow as strongly as it has this year because of some of the issues that have been touched on, including the global slowdown. Some of our major trading partners are experiencing weaker growth than we would have expected six months ago. Such factors are incorporated into our baseline assessment. When one applies the impact of the Brexit scenario, it is applied with respect to that baseline. When we outline our forecast under a no-deal Brexit scenario, by definition it incorporates the impact of Brexit but it also implicitly incorporates our assessment of how we think the global economy is likely to evolve in 2020.