Gerry Horkan (Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

The ESRI examines Brexit as Brexit, which is what they have to do. It is not Brexit in the context of a global economic meltdown or of some other shock that might happen. Nobody anticipated what happened in the period 2008 to 2010, inclusive. While there may have been a few people and occasional naysayers - one might say a broken clock is right twice a day - nobody anticipated the scale and speed at which the slowdown happened, although not many people anticipated the robustness and speed of the recovery either. The ESRI's figures are based on a relatively steady economy, all other things being equal. Guests appearing before the committee in the past six months or year, including chief executives of some of the five main banks, stated we are closer to the next recession than we are to the previous one. I acknowledge that Dr. McQuinn stated he expects the economy to be okay, and I do not think anybody wants it go any other way, but has the ESRI examined the impact of Brexit in the context of a slowing down of the economy, a recession, a trade war between China and the EU, or with the US, or whatever?