Mr. Peter Roebben:

I would agree that we are closer to the next downturn than the last one. I was analysing that in my previous job as head of credit risk globally for the KBC group. Our chief economist, who keeps a close eye on things here, is still quite upbeat about the immediate expectations in the Irish economy. We still expect 3.5% GDP growth, which is slightly more conservative than the IMF forecast of 4.7%. The outlook is still positive. We consider it from the retail client perspective. Our mortgage distribution is up 9% year on year. The year started a bit more slowly than we expected. At the end of last year and in the first month of this year activity was less but we saw it pick up in February and March, which for the time being is continuing. On the retail side, what probably happened was the scare around Brexit at that time, which kept some consumers back from taking the step but that seems to have recovered. It is true that house prices are a concern. Affordability is a real issue for many potential borrowers. That has to do of course with the imbalance between offer and demand in terms of new housing coming to the market although our expectations are that 22,000 new dwellings will come onto the market this year at the present rhythm, compared with 18,000 units last year. Our estimates, however, are that approximately 35,000 units per year would correspond to normal demand and would offer balance in this market, so we are still somewhere behind where we should be. In that sense, we remain relatively optimistic.

There are many uncertainties there. I am hardly an expert on Ireland after seven weeks so I will be humble about that but Brexit is a big sword of Damocles over expectations for growth but it can go in any direction. The recent announcement of the European Central Bank, ECB, to keep lower interest rates going for a much longer term is the fuel for continuous growth. I have summed up several elements that I think plead in favour of the short-term economic outlook for Ireland. I am ill placed to answer how that potentially affects lending or investment demand in companies because it is not a market in which we are very active. I can give macroeconomic figures but not a real personal feeling from our bank's point of view.