Mr. Seamus Coffey:

I have tried to make a hugely important point. That €6 billion swing is outside of the general economic improvement we have seen. These things are largely outside of our control. Some 80% of corporation tax is paid by multinationals. Their profitability, activities and the amount of corporation tax they pay in Ireland does not affect economic activity. The interest bill is based on the interest rate environment. We have seen a huge swing in our favour with huge tailwinds even before considering the cyclical recovery we have experienced. Almost all of that €6 billion, which is an unexpected gain since 2015, has been absorbed through either additional increases in spending on health or through a ramping up of public capital spending. In 2018, even with that €6 billion gain, we are still projected to run a deficit. That leaves us in a vulnerable position where there could be an economic downturn. It is likely that it is inevitable that there will be a slowdown at some stage. There is a strong likelihood of there being a downturn at some stage. If that is allied with an increase in interest rates and, for some reason, a reduction in corporation tax receipts in Ireland, while it seems unlikely, a large deficit could open up rapidly. The increases we have seen in health spending and capital spending on the basis of what might turn out to be temporary increases in corporation tax and reductions in interest rates may be reversed. That is not a position we want to go back to.