Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

I turn to my second question. Yesterday, the council issued an interesting tweet which showed what the forecast was in budget 2015 for 2018 for corporation tax and the interest bill. The inverse relationship is very interesting. The 2015 forecast for corporation tax in 2018 was €5.5 billion, while the outturn was €8.5 billion. Conversely, the interest bill was forecast to be €8.5 billion and has turned out to be €5.5 billion. Therefore, there has been a €6 billion swing in one year under those two headings. Consider how favourable the conditions have been for Ireland, that is, the factors outside our control such as corporate tax receipts, international flows, intellectual property and interest rates, which are central.

Interest rates are out of our control as we continue to reduce the deficit. Does Mr. Coffey think how exposed we are and how open the Irish economy and public finances are to another shock is sufficiently understood? The difference between those two key variables is €6 billion in one year alone.