Eamon Ryan (Dublin Bay South, Green Party) | Oireachtas source

I thank Mr. Greg Muttitt and Mr. Allen for their very interesting presentations.

I do not know whether Mr. Muttitt had a chance to see an earlier hearing when the International Energy Agency, IEA, made a presentation because the agency's figures are quite different. I specifically asked it about the figures when I was here because I had seen some of Mr. Muttitt's material. If I recall correctly, the IEA argued that an additional investment of $7 trillion was needed in oil and gas infrastructure. The IEA recognised that there is a mathematical problem, in terms of meeting the Paris Agreement obligations. The IEA speculated that there is somewhere between 500 gigatons and 1,200 gigatons of carbon remain in use and recognised that there is 3,000 gigatons in existing reserves. The IEA seemed to argue that we would still need to use the larger quantity because oil, in particular, would be required for plastics, fertiliser, shipping and aviation. The IEA also argued that while some of the power and other sectors may be able to scale it back there would still be a demand for oil reserves in other sectors. I was uncertain how the agency could address the climate issue while this happened. I wonder has Mr. Muttitt had a chance to peruse the IEA presentation. If so, can he comment on its analysis? What is his view on the alternative position presented by the IEA?

I wish to mention a difficulty to Mr. Muttitt and maybe Mr. Allen might have an interest in the following as well. We are in this strange world where we want to stop the production of fossil fuels and for the price to go low. Interestingly, the IEA showed that with the drop in production reserves, it does seem in the past three years that there has been no major investment in oil and gas exploration. There is ongoing demand for over 90 million barrels of oil a day. In terms of the demand-supply equation, the price of oil is starting to increase again.

Yesterday, Jeremy Leggett, somebody I know from the past, indicated it could go back to $150 a barrel. I never believed we would ever get back to over $100 a barrel. My understanding was that electricity would replace oil in transport and it would keep demand low.

The various presentations the committee had last week stated that oil and gas extraction in the Atlantic margin might be feasible at $50 a barrel. I believe the wildcat drilling off the west coast of Ireland is highly speculative and highly unlikely to strike oil. However, if it does and it can only earn $50 a barrel, it comes into play. Have any of the witnesses any projections on both oil and gas prices? Both prices are rising at the moment. The International Energy Agency, IEA, presented an analysis that known reserves are tailing off, that there are no easy big finds but that there are large shale production possibilities. Where are prices going? How do we work the price factor in order that it helps us meet the Paris climate change targets?

I was interested in Mr. Allen's analysis, particularly about power to gas which we have not looked at in real detail. I have heard arguments that there is a problem in Britain and Ireland that in the middle of a winter with a high-pressure system when one does not have wind for three weeks, one can have a large heat load. Does that power to gas scenario cover that big spike in heat load in the middle of winter?

Did Mr. Allen look at interconnection? What levels of interconnection are his figures showing? Hopefully, Brexit will not stymie this. With an electricity network system that connects into Norwegian hydro, solar in the south, Alpine hydro and French nuclear, one gets a system where some of those spikes are more manageable.

I tend to agree with Mr. Allen's analysis. However, how does it square with the late David MacKay's analysis which showed the UK would require windmills everywhere? David MacKay's analysis was good because it always went back to the kilowatt-hour, kWh, measurement and was physics oriented, which I liked. How does Mr. Allen's analysis compare to David MacKay's?