Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 13 December 2016

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

5:00 pm

Dr. Thomas Conefrey:

We do not have any cause for major alarm now. Certainly, it is not the case that there is any evidence for any signs for a big slow-down in growth. Apart from the industrial production chart, we are seeing continued growth in the other indicators, especially employment. Even in domestic demand and consumption, the figures are still growing. We made the point in the November report that the rate of growth in some of these indicators had slowed compared to what we saw in 2015. However, there was still continued respectable growth.

The take-away message from our side is that we will be watching these things closely. In particular, we will be watching the traditional sector of industrial production. That is a concern. Many of the firms in that sector are dependent on the UK market. The exchange rate movements are almost certain to have had a negative effect on that sector. Whether, more broadly, there is a slow-down is another matter. There is no great evidence of a slow-down more generally, but we will be keeping an eye on some of these indicators. They are growing at a slightly slower pace than we saw in 2015.

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