Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 6 September 2016

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Analysis of Economic Forecasts: Central Bank of Ireland

1:00 pm

Dr. Gabriel Fagan:

I thank the Deputy for his questions. Regarding GDP, the Central Bank is involved in a number of international committees within the context of the ECB, including the statistics committee, and the CSO is closely engaged with EUROSTAT in discussing statistical issues. In a way, the Deputy's question is one for the CSO, as it relates to how the CSO might make colleagues from other countries aware and link with them in developing indicators, given the international statistical institutional set-up. At this point, we need to develop our own indicators. If we assess them and they turn out to be effective, we will have a strong case in telling other countries that are facing similar problems that they can use them. Regarding EUROSTAT and other international organisations, if one is to understand economies, one needs supplementary indicators. That would be the way to go, but the first step is to try to get our own indicators up and running.

On currency and movement in the exchange rate, the depreciation of sterling is undoubtedly a negative factor in the Irish economy. To some extent, we have incorporated this and our Brexit estimates in our forecasts of, as Mr. Quinn mentioned, -0.2% this year and -0.6%. These include foreign demand and exchange rate effects. I agree with the Deputy that this is adverse for the economy. We have tried to take it into account in so far as we can. In future, there may be even more dramatic movements in sterling, for example, further depreciations. This is not to be ruled out and we would have to reassess the impacts on the economy.

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