Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 6 September 2016
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Analysis of Economic Forecasts: Central Bank of Ireland
1:00 pm
Colm Brophy (Dublin South West, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source
There has been much talk on Brexit and the risks associated with it. A specific issue with regard to the next 12 months is the currency movement which has come about as a result of the Brexit vote, and the impact on the economy of near parity between sterling and the euro. It is possible there are opportunities. I am interested to hear the thoughts of the witnesses on the risks in this regard.
A number of committee members have referred to the figure for headline GDP, which is an important accepted indicator. With due respect to ourselves as a country and the Central Bank, working on our own model is an important exercise but I presume that some of the many other open vulnerable small economies must have experienced similar situations to ourselves, including among our EU partners. Has any collaborative work been done? There would be much more strength in a model devised collectively by small open economies such as our own as an alternate statement of GDP. Let us face it, the headline GDP figure has been devised by the big boys for the big boys, which most reflects the way in which their economies work.
Given our current circumstances, however, we might not be successful in selling a formula that we devise for ourselves regardless of how good it is. To what degree has the Central Bank examined international models or asked the central banks of other small, open economies about what they have done?
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