Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 7 May 2015

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis

Nexus Phase

Mr. John Beggs:

We .. I'm not familiar with the report. I certainly don't recall it. And that's something that probably would've been dealt with within group as opposed to capital markets. I think, in relation to stress testing ... I think it's been already reported and discussed at the committee here how AIB did a stress test in 2007 of commercial property, with estimated losses that were within ... within in tolerance limits. So it's, you know, big drops in property prices ... commercial property prices had been stress tested and found to be manageable.

It all depends on how ... the degree to which the probability that you attach to that scenario and I think the ex-chairman made a point that they only stressed for a one in 25 year event and not more, which gave you, obviously, a lower outcome. But, I would think, just thinking back, there were probably plenty of such research reports that were becoming quite negative on Ireland and, clearly, commercial property was an area that would've been very much in focus. I mean, I'd say all the property portfolio, whether it be house prices and commercial property, they would've made assumptions of declines, given the height to which house prices had ... and property prices generally, had risen over the three or four years up to the crash.

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