Professor Imelda Maher:

I read something Professor David Phinnemore, professor of European politics at Queens University, Belfast, wrote in anticipation of such a question. He points out that 25% of Northern Ireland's non-UK trade is with Ireland. We have been talking a great deal about people, but the customs question is also important. He also notes the dividend from the peace agreements. A total of €150 million in grants will be given to Northern Ireland by the EU between 2014 and 2020. I suspect, given the Deputy's comment about how long all this will take, that this money will be spent before the UK has left the EU, but it is still a sizeable sum. There is also the issue of cross-Border workers. Many people move between North and South and there is significant commercial activity around the Border. Professor Phinnemore's concern is that there is not enough discussion about the Northern Irish dimension in the Great Britain debate because it is so small relative to the rest of the UK. Nonetheless, that raises issues, particularly in Ireland.

The other context that ties into that is the negotiations around TTIP and CETA. The free trade agreements with the US and Canada need to be factored into the trade and commercial aspect of this debate.

There will be a referendum, but there are two kinds of referendum on Europe in the UK context. One is the political promise by the current Prime Minister to hold a referendum should he be elected following the next election, and that is what is focusing the mind. That is the Brexit dimension, with which we are concerned. However, there is also the EU Act from 2011, which guarantees a referendum in the event of substantial treaty change in the Union. Mr. Cameron has been doing his best to avoid getting embroiled with that legislation, but that avoidance can only last for so long. That is not particular to the current government; it would have to be dealt with by any government. At some point, the UK will have to bite the bullet on that. That legislation is complicated, with lists of items that have to be included in order to decide, but it will trigger a referendum at some point. I hope that is clear enough.

With regard to the patent court, location can shift. I hope that is not complicated. I had not realised they were going to be there.

We are cognisant of the idea of the weakening of relations across the UK and the disintegrating union after the Scottish referendum, and this needs to be factored in, especially if Scotland votes "Yes". Professor Sionaidh Douglas-Scott, a Scottish national based in Oxford, has written about this and reflected on it considerably. It might be necessary to talk to the Scots as well as to the House of Lords.

The Deputy's point about this taking years is important, and my advice to the committee would be not to let it take years and years. Ireland has a particular voice to present in the EU context should the UK vote to exit and one of the statements Ireland will want to make is that Article 50 should not drag on, so that the exit takes too long, because it will pay a higher price for a delay than any other country. That is a fair comment to make in this context.