Ms Helen Lowry:

We were very aware that at times we were dealing with the tip of the iceberg in terms of undocumented people. We have very close relationships with undocumented people through trust and by word of mouth and therefore, we deal with a large number of people. As I said earlier, we did some work to arrive at a well-calculated estimation of the numbers. With regard to the figure of 20,000 to 26,000 persons, the information is on the public record with the Department of Justice and Equality. For example, I refer to information on the number of persons on deportation orders since 1999, the numbers of orders enforced and the numbers not enforced, which information is available to the public. We made a calculation of the number of people who left the country voluntarily in that period, counting those in what is called the section 3 process; those people who have applied for humanitarian leave to remain; those people who have been granted that leave; those who have been refused; and those who over-stay. These over-stayers are a more difficult category of persons to calculate. For example, the entire Irish undocumented population in the United States are probably visa over-stayers.

We based our calculations on a UK report which is included in the eight-page research paper we submitted to the committee, entitled, Ireland is Home. This contains a very good explanation of the research methodology. The UK population structure is more similar to ours than other countries. We used a residual methodology which has been widely accepted as an expert way of carrying out a well-estimated calculation of undocumented persons by looking at those whom we know are undocumented and then doing a percentage version from a residual methodology perspective. That is what we used, along with our own ongoing case management system in which we document every single person who comes through our doors. We have that kind of data for 14 years now. We combined all that information. There is a low, medium and high set of numbers. We were of the view that 20,000 to 26,000 was a well-informed estimate. In calculating the €183 million contribution, we took a median number between 20,000 and 26,000 and we used 23,000 as a figure for calculation of what the actual scheme could bring in.