Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 10 April 2013

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform

Annual Growth Survey 2013: Discussion with European Commission Representation in Ireland

2:30 pm

Photo of Stephen DonnellyStephen Donnelly (Wicklow, Independent) | Oireachtas source

My point is slightly different. My question is not "Why are there inaccuracies?". I understand that. My question relates to the fact that the error is systemic. There is the same mistake in the same direction by every institution every quarter. Rather than getting into it now, it would be useful if Mr. Nagarajan could provide the committee over the next few weeks with a technical note. I would be interested to see whether anything has been done to address what is clearly a systemic error in macro-forecasting theory and modelling. I imagine the committee could provide it - the fiscal advisory council has the extraordinary graph that shows the systemic error - rather than wasting Mr. Nagarajan's time by getting into technical forecasting modelling. It would be useful to have a note. I would be interested to know whether Mr. Nagarajan and his colleagues have addressed the fact that everyone is getting it wrong in the same direction. We might be steering a car by looking backwards, but we keep crashing to the left and I am wondering if they have figured out that the steering is slightly off.

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