Mr. Nigel Nagarajan:

One is then trying to extrapolate on that basis to talk about the future. When the economy more or less continues along a smooth path, one's forecasting should more or less be accurate. What has happened with the crisis is that there has been a very large shock due to the build-up of different factors and balances, etc., and it is true that in many cases institutions did not correctly forecast the size of that shock. That is a reason we need to reflect on how to strengthen our models. There is a considerable reflection exercise ongoing in my institution and other institutions about how to improve models and forecasts.