Written answers
Tuesday, 23 April 2024
Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection
Social Insurance
Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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405. To ask the Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection if the scheduled increases in PRSI between 2024 and 2028 are factored into table 2 (showing cashflow projections with respect to SIF in selected years) of the actuarial review of the social insurance fund as at 31 December which was completed by her Department in December 2023; and if she will provide an updated equivalent table providing cashflow projections with respect to SIF for those selected years which take account of the aforementioned PRSI increases. [17553/24]
Heather Humphreys (Cavan-Monaghan, Fine Gael)
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The scheduled increases in PRSI rates between 2024 and 2028, agreed by Government, were not factored into table 2 of the Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund as at 31 December 2021, published in January 2024. The table below provides an updated equivalent table providing cashflow projections with respect to the Social Insurance Fund for those selected years which take account of the scheduled PRSI increases from 2024 to 2028.
It should be noted that, similar to the projections from the Actuarial Review, the figures are in 2021 prices, do not include the income from the National Training Fund and the expenditure cashflows do not include the impact of State pension reform, in particular the phasing out of the yearly average method of calculating the State pension (contributory).
I trust this clarifies the matter for the Deputy.
| Year | Receipts | Expenditure | Surplus / Shortfall | Net as a % of GDP | Net as a % of GNI* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 11.8 | 14.9 | -3.0 | -0.7% | -1.3% |
| 2022 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 1.9 | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 2023 | 13.4 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | 14.2 | 11.4 | 2.7 | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| 2025 | 15.1 | 12.2 | 2.9 | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| 2026 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 2.9 | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| 2027 | 17.3 | 14.0 | 3.3 | 0.6% | 1.0% |
| 2028 | 18.5 | 14.9 | 3.6 | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| 2029 | 19.6 | 15.8 | 3.8 | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| 2030 | 20.2 | 16.7 | 3.5 | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| 2035 | 22.5 | 20.7 | 1.7 | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| 2040 | 24.6 | 25.8 | -1.2 | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| 2045 | 26.6 | 31.8 | -5.2 | -0.6% | -1.1% |
| 2050 | 28.5 | 38.3 | -9.8 | -1.1% | -1.9% |
| 2060 | 32.3 | 49.1 | -16.8 | -1.6% | -2.9% |
| 2070 | 35.4 | 58.0 | -22.6 | -1.9% | -3.5% |
| 2077 | 37.3 | 65.9 | -28.6 | -2.3% | -4.2% |
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