Denis Naughten (Roscommon-Galway, Independent)
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The Question refers to two different targets, one relating to greenhouse gas emissions reduction and the other to renewable energy.

In relation to the former, the 2009 Effort Sharing Decision 406/2009/EC established binding annual greenhouse gas emissions targets for EU Member States for the period 2013 to 2020. For the year 2020 itself, the target set for Ireland is that emissions should be 20% below their level in 2005. This will be Ireland’s contribution to the overall EU objective to reduce its emissions by the order of 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. Ireland’s target is jointly the most demanding 2020 reduction target allocated to EU Member States under this Decision, which is shared only with Denmark and Luxembourg.

The latest projections of greenhouse gas emissions by the Environmental Protection Agency indicate that emissions from those sectors of the economy covered by Ireland's 2020 targets could be between 4% and 6% below 2005 levels by 2020. The projected shortfall to our targets in 2020 reflects both the constrained investment capacity over the past decade due to the economic crisis, and the extremely challenging nature of the target itself. In fact, it is now accepted that Ireland’s 2020 target was not consistent with what would be achievable on an EU wide cost-effective basis.

Notwithstanding this projected shortfall, Ireland's first statutory National Mitigation Plan, which I published in July of this year, provides a framework to guide investment decisions by Government in domestic measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Plan sets out what Ireland is currently doing, and is planning to do, to further the national transition objective as set out in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act, 2015. Although this first Plan will not provide a complete roadmap to achieve the national transition objective to 2050, it begins the process of development of medium-to long-term options to ensure that we are well positioned to take the necessary actions in the next and future decades.

The legislative framework governing the EU’s 2020 emissions reductions targets includes a number of flexibility mechanisms to enable Member States to meet their annual emissions targets, including provisions to bank any excess allowances to future years and to trade allowances between Member States. Using our banked emissions from the period to 2015, Ireland is projected to comply with its emissions reduction targets in each of the years 2013 to 2018. However, our cumulative emissions are expected to exceed targets for 2019 and 2020, which will result in a requirement to purchase additional allowances. While this purchasing requirement is not, at this stage, expected to be significant, further analysis will be required to quantify the likely costs involved, in light of the final amount and price of allowances required.

In relation to Ireland's 2030 obligations, negotiations on a proposal to determine individual EU Member State targets to contribute to the overall EU commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% on 1990 levels by 2030 are ongoing. The EU Council of Ministers agreed its General Approach on this proposal on 13 October. I am satisfied that the Council's General Approach provides appropriate recognition of different Member State circumstances and the need to provide flexibility to reduce emissions as cost-effectively as possible in the context of the overall EU target.

With regard to Ireland's renewable energy targets, the EU Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC set Ireland a legally binding target of meeting 16% of our energy demand from renewable sources by 2020. Ireland is committed to achieving this target through meeting 40% of electricity demand, 12% of heat and 10% of transport from renewable sources of energy, with the latter transport target also being legally binding.

While good progress has been made to date, with the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) advising that 9.1% of Ireland's overall energy requirements in 2015 were met from renewable sources, meeting the 16% target remains challenging. The SEAI has recently estimated that Ireland could fall short of our renewable energy target by between 1% and 3%. Moreover, in a document entitled Ireland's Energy Targets - Progress, Ambition and Impacts(published in April 2016), the SEAI estimated that the cost to Ireland of not meeting our overall renewable energy targets may be in the range of €65 million to €130 million for each percentage point Ireland falls short of the overall 16% renewable energy target.

The Renewable Energy Directive provides a comprehensive framework for Member States to work towards achieving individual and EU renewable energy targets, including mechanisms for countries to work together such as statistical transfers, which allow Member States to meet their targets by purchasing credits from Member States that overachieve on their renewable targets.

The focus remains firmly on meeting our 2020 target and a number of interventions have been taken to support renewable energy, including the Renewable Energy Feed in Tariff supports. New measures are also in development, including a Renewable Electricity Support Scheme and a Renewable Heat Incentive. In any event, the cost of purchasing statistical transfers should any potential shortfall in Ireland's target arise has yet to be established and will depend on a number of factors, particularly the available supply and market costs.