Written answers

Tuesday, 15 December 2015

Department of An Taoiseach

National Population Statistics

Photo of Jerry ButtimerJerry Buttimer (Cork South Central, Fine Gael)
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77. To ask the Taoiseach the number of persons aged over 80 years in 2015; and the forecast annual increase in that number to 2021. [45009/15]

Photo of Paul KehoePaul Kehoe (Minister of State and Government Chief Whip, Department of An Taoiseach; Minister of State, Department of Defence; Wexford, Fine Gael)
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The Central Statistics Office publishes annual population estimates in August with a mid-April reference period. The latest results were published on August 26 2015 and estimated that in mid-April 2015 there were approximately 142,900persons aged 80 years and over usually resident in the State.

The Central Statistics Office also publishes population projections for the State after each Census, the most recent set of projections were published in April 2013 and cover the years 2016-2046. The projections are based on assumptions relating to future trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Two sets of assumptions were chosen for fertility, one for mortality and three for migration.

The base year used was 2011, using the Census of Population results.

For the purpose of the tables provided, only the assumptions relating to mortality and migration are relevant. The fertility assumptions are not relevant as all persons that will be aged 80 years or over in the years 2016-2021 were already born in 2011.

Mortality Assumption

The long-term rate of improvement in life expectancy is assumed to be 1.5 per cent over the period 2016-2046.

Migration Assumptions

M1: Net migration returning to positive (net inflow of persons) by 2016 and rising steadily thereafter to plus 30,000 persons annually by 2021.

M2: Net migration returning to positive by 2018 and rising thereafter to plus 10,000 persons annually by 2021.

M3: Net migration remaining negative for the whole period.

Table 1 shows the estimated population for those aged 80 years and over for 2015.

Table 2 shows the projected population for those aged 80 years and over for the years 2016-2021.

Table 3 shows the projected population change for 2015-2021. The population change was calculated using estimated population data for the year 2015 and projected population data for the years 2016-2021.

Table 1 Estimated Population aged 80 years and over for 2015

YearNumber
2015142,900
Source: Central Statistics Office

Table 2 Projected Population for those aged 80 years and over by Criteria for Projection and Year

YearM1M2M3
2016148,600148,500148,400
2017153,500153,400153,300
2018158,200158,100157,900
2019163,800163,600163,300
2020169,900169,500169,100
2021175,600175,100174,700
Source: Central Statistics Office

Table 3 Projected Population change for those aged 80 years and over by Criteria for Projection, 20151-2021

Population ChangeM1M2M3
Total32,70032,20031,800
Annual Average5,4505,3675,300
1 2015 data is sourced from the current annual population estimates.

Source: Central Statistics Office

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