Tom Clonan (Independent) | Oireachtas source

Curirim fáilte roimh an Aire Stáit.I echo my fellow Senators' compliments to Senator O'Loughlin for the work done on the report in advance of the Summit of Heads of State and Government at the Council of Europe in Reykjavik in May. The last meeting in 2005 predated the invasion of Georgia by Russia. The geopolitical situation has changed fundamentally in Europe since then. Ukraine has endured a winter offensive from Vladimir Putin, the forces of the Russian Federation and the Wagner mercenary group. The centre of gravity has been around the town of Bakhmut, which is a European town. It would have seemed inconceivable to us only 18 months ago that we would have a conflict of the same scale and proportion as some of the biggest battles of the Second World War. The White House spokesperson on national security stated this week that it is the belief of the US intelligence services that 20,000 Russian troops have been killed in the past two months in and around Bakhmut and that 80,000 suffered severely life-limiting and life-altering injuries. Unfortunately, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, has estimated that a similar number of Ukrainian troops have probably been killed and injured, so we are looking at deaths in excess of 40,000 in the first few months of this year, with a further 160,000 seriously injured.

What is going to happen next? The what or how in this regard next is becoming clearer. Over the winter, the Ukrainian military assembled a force of approximately 250 main battle tanks, some Challenger tanks from the UK and Leopard tanks from all over Europe. There is also a promise of tanks from France and the US. The Ukrainians also assembled a force of 1,500 armoured fighting vehicles that will allow them to field the equivalent of two NATO armoured brigades in what will be a spring offensive. We know what the how is but what will happen next in Ukraine? Next week, the temperatures in Bakhmut will rise to about 23°C or 24°C. The town has a temperate, continental climate and summer will come very quickly. We are going to see that Ukrainian offensive in the next few weeks. It has already begun with the destruction of petrol and oil facilities and ammunition depots behind Russian lines. It is likely, in terms of precisely the what, that the Ukrainians will attempt to move on an axis from Kherson through Zaporizhzhia and towards Verdansk on the Sea of Azov in order to cut off Vladimir Putin's land corridor.

The question that remains is what will happen next? I agree with my colleague, Senator Ward, that Crimea must be returned to the territory of Ukraine and to the control of its people. All of the children and Ukrainian citizens who have been deported and forcibly removed to Russia must be returned, but we have to find ways and means to do that. In addition to defending our values - and I echo what Senator O'Loughlin said - I hope that this summit reaffirms that the Council of Europe is a beacon for human rights and a community of values in Europe because that is what our Ukrainian brothers and sisters are fighting for. We grew up in a time when Soviet troops and Warsaw Pact troops were all over Europe, in almost every single capital in eastern and central Europe, with nuclear missiles pointed at cities like London, Paris and New York. We did not frame our neutrality in that context, so I hope that when we attend the Reykjavik summit, we will do so in the full spirit of a neutral State, proposing alternative ways and means to bring this conflict to an end and to bring about, as Senator Ward described it, a just peace. We must remember that what brought down the Berlin Wall and what expelled the Soviet Union and its forces from central and eastern Europe was economic prosperity. In addition to the Council of Europe being a beacon for our values, the European Union has been one of the longest and most successful peace processes in European and world history. We have to bring that to the table and state our aspirations very clearly and I hope Ireland gives leadership in that regard.

I want to refer briefly to the high-level reflection on chapter E, the Council of Europe Convention on Preventing and Combating Violence Against Women and Domestic Violence, commonly known as the Istanbul Convention. I hope that we get a really strong statement on that. Approximately 400 million European citizens are impacted by gender-based violence and gender-based discrimination. We have had these problems aired recently in our own jurisdiction. Ireland needs to and ought to take the lead on that.