Stephen Donnelly (Wicklow, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

I met Professor Nolan and Dr. Holohan this morning and they admitted that there is a great deal of uncertainty in this regard.How transmissible is this virus in children? We do not know that yet. What response will there be from society? Will we have the same level of response as we had the last time? I hope so but we do not know. We do not know how bad it will get but there are things we do know. We know there were 1,000 cases yesterday and there will be approximately 1,200 cases today. We know the numbers in hospital have doubled in the past three weeks and that because of exponential growth, they will continue to double. I was talking to Philip Nolan this morning about more than 200 people being in intensive care in a few months and that I was beginning to talk through with the Department that we will have to start up building up additional surge capacity for ICU now in case it happens. These are things we do know. We know the range given for fatalities for just three months is between 335 and 1,760. In the War of Independence approximately 2,300 people died. That puts in context what the deaths of 1,760 people would mean. We must do everything we can to push that down.

Reasonable questions have been asked regarding the use of PCR and antigen testing. The Government's approach is a phased one. The Bill provides for the possibility of using PCR and antigen testing. People who are concerned about that should have no issue voting for the Bill. We must bear in mind how contagious the Delta variant is, that case numbers are roaring and the spike in cases. I want to share with colleagues, as soon as I can, the data I saw this morning on the infection rate for the 16- to 18-year-old group. That group is now at the same infection rate as at the peak in the October wave and the line is vertical on the page. The line is also vertical for the 19- to 24-year-old group. There are very quick infection rates for these groups. Thank God most of them will be fine because of their age but they will not all be fine. Many of them will get long Covid and we are only beginning to understand that. The situation is very serious. We are taking a cautious approach. Might we use PCR and antigen testing in the future? Yes, and that is facilitated in the Bill. We should remember a PCR test can take about five days to be detect the virus, from the day the person is infected until the day it can detect the virus. If a person gets infected on a Wednesday and, in good faith, gets tested on the Friday and has a negative PCR test, that person may well be contagious shortly after that, and may go out to restaurants and bars on a Friday night, the Saturday night or the Sunday night carrying this super contagious variant. We are taking an approach where we may well use PCR and antigen testing but not yet. We are watching what is happening in Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal and Cyrus. We will be cautious abut this and we will do it in the safest way possible. That is why the Bill is structured as it is. It is possible in the regulation to bring testing in.

I will finish on this point and I thank the Leas-Cathaoirleach for his indulgence. I do not want this legislation; none of us wants it. My hope is that long before the three-month period expires at which time this legislation will automatically fall, we will not need it because we will have reached a level of vaccination and people will have continued to follow the public health measures to such an extent the risk profile falls and we can all get back to living normal lives.