Ivana Bacik (Independent) | Oireachtas source

I am sharing time with Senator Norris. I welcome the Minister of State and commend her for her steady and calm handling of this issue. I commend her officials and the Tánaiste also. We have had a very co-operative and collaborative approach in both Houses and everybody has worked with the Government in a constructive fashion on seeking a way through this disaster. I think we all agree that Brexit is a disaster. A no-deal Brexit is a disaster compounded and squared. Unfortunately, it looks increasingly likely that this is what we are facing now.

Others have pointed out how time moves on in politics. A week may be a long time but this morning, two hours was a long time. At 10 a.m. it seemed as if the new joint instrument and the declaration might be enough to overturn that 230 vote majority against the withdrawal agreement on a previous occasion in Westminster. However, by 12 noon, the British Attorney General, in the devastating final paragraph of his legal advice, appeared to have scuppered it. Now the DUP has said it will vote against it, not just abstain, as have the other hard-line Tories. It is extraordinary. When one reads this short legal opinion of only 19 paragraphs, in fact, the other paragraphs seem to be leading to a different conclusion. Paragraph 14, for example, suggests that the joint instrument and declaration provide a substantive and binding reinforcement of the legal rights available to the UK in the event that the EU were to fail in its duties of good faith and best endeavours. There was an alternative reading. Paragraph 19 seems to me to sit oddly with the rest of the opinion. In any case, it is done now.

Certainly, that is not the only piece of bad news. Within the last hour, Nissan has announced that it will stop manufacturing a particular model of car in Sunderland. We are going to see a lot more of this fall-out from Brexit. The only positive one can draw from the likely defeat of the withdrawal agreement tonight in Westminster, if that vote goes ahead, is that it could trigger a second referendum in which remaining was one option and an orderly exit was the other. That is the only positive development. There is a way to that, through the amendment that is to be put forward next week by the Labour Party backbench MPs, Kyle and Wilson. I think that vote will still go ahead. It is hard to see how they would get to a majority, however. Theresa May has said she will put the vote on a no-deal Brexit to the House of Commons tomorrow but if the majority rejects that, it means the majority will have rejected everything put to it. We have not seen a majority for anything. A majority may, indeed, vote for an extension to Article 50 but the other 27 member states need to sign up to that. The Tánaiste was on his feet a few minutes ago in the Dáil saying that Ireland would not stand in the way of an extension if the UK does seek one. However, the UK would need to give a reason in order to be seeking an extension with any real prospect of agreement from the other member states.

Some senior Tories are suggesting that the only likely outcome tonight is going to be a general election in Britain. That would certainly be a reason to extend Article 50. Perhaps at this point it is the best scenario for Ireland. It is very difficult to see any positive way through. One would have to agree with the analysis of 43 former British ambassadors speaking a month ago, who talked about the fiasco of Brexit and the national crisis. If a general election were called, it is not even clear what the manifestos of the Labour Party or the Tories would be. I speak as a Labour Party member here, and we have done all we can to seek to influence our colleagues in the British Labour Party to take a clearer stance in support of "Remain".I hope that will come through more clearly in light of recent developments. There is a powerful cross-party movement in Britain for a second referendum and a people's vote. This is the only light that can be seen at the moment.

The Bill before us is a complex Bill, which we all hope will not be needed. Deputy Joan Burton called it a "just-in-case Bill". My Labour Party colleagues and I will support the Bill in a constructive spirit. We recognise that it is necessary to pass it but we hope it will not be necessary to implement it.

There are three issues of concern. First is the constitutional issue which my colleague and party leader, Deputy Howlin, raised in the Dáil. There is concern around whether section 4 of the Bill overreaches the power of delegation of legislation and whether the Bill purports to give Ministers power, effectively, to amend primary legislation in a way contrary to Article 15 of the Constitution, as well as case law such as the Laurentiu case and the Mulcreevy case of 2004. We can tease that issue out more effectively on Committee Stage but there is a concern that the power to delegate is too broadly stated and would replace the power to make primary legislation. The Minister said secondary legislation was in preparation but we need to make sure we do not fall foul of our Constitution in framing secondary legislation.

Deputy Howlin also raised questions about tax arrangements and pointed out that Part 6 might appear to give preferential tax treatment to the UK, which would be in breach of our obligations under the GATT treaty and the normal WTO rules. I will raise this again on Committee Stage.

Finally, in the context of immigration, how will Brexit impact on the rights of non-EEA family members of British citizens currently resident in Ireland? This has been raised with me and may have been raised with other colleagues so I will seek clarification of that on Committee Stage. We will reluctantly be supporting this Bill on a cross-party basis.