Michael McDowell (Independent) | Oireachtas source

I welcome the Minister and I acknowledge what he has said in his annual transition statement. I note that he has arranged for a written version of this document to be lodged in the Library of the Oireachtas today. I must confess that I consider this transition statement to be somewhat complacent and will set out the reason I think it is complacent. In his opening statement, the Minister said the following:

The 2015 Act prescribes that the annual transition statement must include an overview of climate change mitigation and adaptation policy measures adopted to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and to adapt to the effects of climate change to enable the achievement of the objective of transitioning to a low-carbon, climate-resilient and environmentally-sustainable economy by the end of 2050. The statement must also include a record of emissions of greenhouse gases set out in the most recent inventory prepared by the Environmental Protection Agency, a projection of future greenhouse gases emissions and a report on compliance with obligations of the State under EU law or an international agreement referred to in section 2 of the 2015 Act.

Does the aural version of this report do that? To be candid, I do not think it does. I think it skirts around the issue and engages in a good deal of circumlocution while it describes what has taken place.

I am privileged to be a member of the Oireachtas joint committee that marks the Minister's Department. About a month ago, the other members and I were treated to a very complacent presentation by the Minister's officials. We were told that further work was in progress. To our dismay, about a fortnight after the hearing, the EPA produced a report, which must have been in draft both in the Department and in the EPA at the time of the hearing, that showed that Ireland's position was far worse than the material supplied to the committee might have suggested at first glance. To be clear, this report, dated 10 November 2016, was accompanied by the EPA director general saying in a press release that "Ireland's economy is growing strongly again and that the growth in the number of people at work benefits all society."She added: "However, we haven't yet achieved a decoupling of economic growth from emissions, something most evident in the transport sector." She later commented: "Ireland is not currently on the right track to meet its 2020 targets, nor is it on the right emissions trajectory to meet future EU targets or our national 2050 decarbonisation goals." That is frank speaking, even if it is quite diplomatic. The Minister has not said that here today. He has not said we are way off target. When one looks at the constituents of how we are off target, they show that agricultural emissions were up in 2015. The most significant drivers for that were higher dairy cow numbers, representing a 7.7% increase. According to the EPA, this reflects the national plans to expand milk production under Food Wise 2025 and the removal of the milk quotas in 2015. Emissions increased by 4.2% in transport and have now increased by 9% in the last three years. We are going in the wrong direction.

It also dealt with the matter of diesel and nitrous oxide emissions. Emissions in the energy industry sector as a result of power generation increased by 5.4% in 2015 compared with 2014. The increase in emissions is largely attributable to a substantial increase in electricity generation from coal, which is up 19.6%, which is almost 20%, and a decrease in natural gas use of 5.5%. Emissions in the residential sector are up 5.1%. Emissions from manufacturing, combustion and industrial processes increased significantly. Cement production was up 13% in 2015. As the country recovers from the slump, all the figures are going very seriously in the wrong direction from the point of view of compliance with our targets in 2030 or 2015.

Ireland's EU target for 2020 is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the non-emissions trading scheme sector by 20% on 2005 levels. Ms Burke, the EPA's chief executive said:

The EPA’s most recent greenhouse gas emission projections published in March this year, projected that Ireland would not meet its 2020 target, with emission reductions likely to be in the range of 6-11% below 2005 levels. The greenhouse gas emission increases for 2015 in this report suggest that achieving reductions, even at the lower end of that range, will be difficult.

That is diplomatic speak for saying it is abandoned and will not happen. We can wish all we like that things might change but we are on the wrong trajectory.

If the EPA's views on this matter are giving us any guidance on where we will be in 2050 or 2030 or to comply with our Paris convention obligations, all the indications are that we are on a seriously wrong course. In every area, our economic growth, which we want to achieve and are determined to achieve, seems to be coupled directly with increases in greenhouse gas. It is all very well to talk about electric cars and about people changing from petrol to diesel or diesel to petrol or whatever it is, but if our agricultural sector is going to increase, and the Minister is the first to say that will happen, there must be serious decreases in other areas. If energy production is going to boost our greenhouse gases in the way it is, the people who say they are against natural gases being found either on land or offshore, should face up to the fact that our coal produced energy went up by 20% in one year. These are serious statistics.

Like Senator Leyden, I wish the Minister well in his job. This report does not comply with the statutory duty which is to give us the projections. Where are the projections in what we have heard this afternoon? I do not see any projections there. I hear diplomatic language being used to cover the fact that we do not have a snowball's chance in hell of achieving the targets we have set ourselves. I do not want to be pessimistic or Cassandra-like and I take no pleasure in saying this but I became aware of it in the Joint Committee on Communications, Climate Action and Environment, of which Deputy Eamon Ryan, Senator Leyden and I are members. We were given a whole set of statistics about a month ago and within a fortnight we discovered that the real picture was far worse. Today we are not really being given projections which the transition statement are supposed to provide. It may be that lurking beneath us in the library is a real transition statement in which all the projections are set out. If the projections are set out there, they should be up here for us to hear and not left downstairs where we have to find out for ourselves.