Tim Lombard (Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I join other speakers in welcoming the Minister to the House. I compliment him on his engagement so far on what is a very serious issue. Brexit and the proposed hard Border is probably the most serious item on the political agenda at the moment and how we deal with it will have a major impact on our citizens and society.

I wish to reflect more on the trade impact. There are many challenges for our food and drink sector. As the Minister and other Members are aware, the sterling exchange rate is one of the key factors affecting our trade with the UK. Today €1 will buy 88p, which is a dramatic change from 75 pence. It is heading towards the famous 90p figure. If it reaches 90p, IBEC has suggested it would result in a loss to the Irish economy of approximately €700 million and could cost 7,000 jobs in the food and drinks sector. That is a frightening statistic. That is where we are today. We are not waiting for the vote or waiting for the hard Border. That is the actual position for the food and drink industry.

The 41% of food and drink exports we send to the UK is worth roughly €4.4 billion. It will affect every county, every co-op, every farmer and every retailer. We need to work out how we will deal with sterling fluctuating more than previously, which is a significant worry. Let us consider the dairy industry and the meat industry. Some 55% or 60% of our beef goes to the UK and roughly 30% of our dairy exports go to the UK. Those are stark figures.

There are also cross-Border issues and how a hard Border would affect, for example, milk supply. Some of the milk in the North comes to the South to be processed and is labelled as European milk. We all know the reputation we have for producing the best quality infant formula in the world. How will we deal with those issues? There are so many questions and so few answers. The Minister will have a very tough task in coming years in dealing with these issues.

It is a fantasy to think that Brexit will be sorted by 2019 because so much social legislation needs to be put through so that the UK can break away from Europe in such a short timescale. If it does not happen by 2019, how will that affect issues such as the make-up of the European Parliament? Will it necessitate a reconfiguring of constituencies because more MEPs would come back into the system?

There are many questions but the big fear is what is actually happening now. It is not about when it happens; the real issue is that it is happening on the ground and is affecting the consumers, manufacturers and producers. In recent weeks, we heard the concerns of the mushroom industry that is producing for the market in the UK. That industry is struggling to the extent that it might not be in existence in 12 months’ time, even before the Border changes.

There are many issues and, from a trade point of view, this is the worst possible outcome. I know the Minister is very aware of it. Unless we put something in place and have some kind of flexibility I have great concerns that we could be facing into a real debacle regarding our industry and trade. I compliment the Minister. In many ways, he has been on top of his brief and has led from the front. I wish him the best in the future because we need to ensure we can deal with the issue. If we do not, it will have a major effect.