Mark Daly (Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

I welcome the Minister. History does not repeat itself as much as it rhymes. In 1975, instead of the Conservative Party tearing itself apart, it was the Labour Party that had a referendum in the UK held against the backdrop of the exact same arguments that are being made today. Ironically enough, the current leader of the British Labour Party, Mr. Jeremy Corbyn, voted against remaining in the EEC at the time, and the same arguments that were being made in 1975 are being made today by the former Mayor of London and by Mr. Nigel Farage, that their wives could not get into hospitals and their kids could not get into schools. Here we are hearing the same arguments being put forward.

What we must understand is that when the UK joined the EEC in 1973 and started that process over a number of decades, it was doing so from a position of weakness rather than being positive about its engagement with the EEC, as it was at the time. It was doing so against the backdrop of the loss of empire. When the Second World War finished, the UK was in charge of nearly a quarter of the planet and 630 million people were under its control. By 1961 only 300 million were under the control of the British Empire and its dominions, at which time it was engaging with the EEC not because it wanted to but because it saw the Commonwealth and its responsibility, power and influence being diminished and considered the EEC was a way of getting it through what was a very tough economic time. The UK had also gone through its own form of a bailout, with the IMF coming in.

What the President of the United States, Barack Obama, and others have said about Britain within the EU is that the latter does not diminish the UK's role but actually magnifies it and its ability to engage with what is now a larger bloc and to have its influence, which, as other Members have said, is very important in lessening the power of the bureaucrats. In many ways, the European Union has lost its way because it is no longer, and many would say it never was, a democracy. To some extent, the European parliaments, those Governments that assisted the EU and those that are part of it do not want it to be a democracy, but that means that the public, the general population, the citizens of Europe, do not have any trust in what are unofficial, unelected bureaucrats. That was the argument put forward by those who were against remaining in the EEC when the previous referendum called by the British Labour Party was held in 1975 and it is being put forward by the Conservative Party again now. The latter is saying that the European Union is heading towards a federalisation and more and continuous union and that this is not something the citizens of Europe favour, as we saw when the UK voted against the referendum to introduce a European constitution. That proposal was abandoned by the bureaucrats because referendums kept being lost. They were lost in France, Ireland and the Netherlands. Of course, as good bureaucrats do, they found another way and brought in a treaty that was ratified at parliamentary level in every country except Ireland. Of course, we were asked to vote on it again. There is no longer any faith in Europe as an institution because it has been designed by bureaucrats to be run by bureaucrats.

The most fundamental failing of its citizens by the EU occurred when the banking crisis hit Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Cyprus. It was the citizens who suffered, and the people who benefited the most are the millionaires and billionaires. There is no way that Europe can regain that trust unless it gives the power back to the people. The Minister will be aware of the different reports compiled by the ESRI in November 2015. The ESRI talked about the trade, foreign direct investment, energy and migration issues that will affect us if the UK votes to leave the EU. If there is a Brexit, everything about this has the potential for negative outcomes. Teagasc's report on the impact on the farming sector said that it will affect us negatively and result in a direct loss of between €150 million and €800 million. IBEC has also looked at the issues that will affect us directly.

There is now also the distinct possibility that another referendum on Scottish independence will take place in the next decade or so. This is obviously a longer-term, decades-long issue based on what could happen in the referendum tomorrow, if the UK decides to leave the EU. That is not to say that the Scottish National Party, SNP, is campaigning to leave the EU. It is telling voters not to make this a referendum on independence. That is one of the foreseeable outcomes, however, and that in itself, with the loss of 31% of Great Britain's territory, would mean that the foreseeable outcome of the UK leaving the European Union is that Scotland will leave the UK. Consequently, Northern Ireland would then become a real issue, as my colleague from Sinn Féin has pointed out. Nobody knows what will happen to the Border. What would become very obvious to everybody, however, is that a border re-established in Europe when everybody else is getting rid of land borders would be a disaster for Ireland, North and South. That could precipitate a longer-term discussion about whether Northern Ireland should remain in the UK. All these issues are quite foreseeable.

The outcome, therefore, for Mr. Farage and Boris Johnson, when they are talking about trying to leave the EU, is that Scotland and Northern Ireland could leave the UK, which would then comprise only England and Wales. The country that will lose most, however, and which, outside of Britain, has most to lose, is Ireland because of our strong trade links, the common travel area and the fact that - apart from the Taiwan-China route - the busiest air route in the world is that which operates between Dublin and London.I ask Senators to imagine the chaos of having increased security and border checks as a result of Britain deciding to leave.