Sean Barrett (Independent) | Oireachtas source

It is welcome that the Taoiseach is coming to the House tomorrow. I hope it will be the start of a very useful dialogue on the future of the House. As the dust settles, some issues about the referendum require to be addressed. How did the opinion polls get it so completely wrong? I saw result predictions at figures of 44% to 27%, 62% to 38%, 64% to 36%, 59% to 41% and that only 29% of people in urban areas supported the continuation of this House when, in fact, some constituencies recorded percentages double that figure. There was a prediction that only 24% of people in rural areas supported the continuation of this House when, in fact, the percentage was more than double that figure. I ask the Acting Leader if we could have a professor of statistics investigate what went wrong in the opinion polls. The danger to democracy is that these predictions could have seriously demoralised the "No" campaign. They led to a series of articles based on incorrect opinion poll findings. These were spin-doctored articles, with people saying that during the canvass they had struggled to find anyone in favour of keeping the Seanad. The articles were based on faulty opinion polls which failed to find 52% of the population. The credibility of market research in Ireland is at risk because of this research. The House and the Government deserve an explanation as the Government is significant when it comes to commissioning opinion polls.

I also note with great caution commentators who effectively asked people to spoil their ballot papers by writing the word "Reform" on them. This could have resulted in the country getting the exact opposite result. We must ensure this does not happen in future referendums. The country holds the most referendums of any country, apart from Switzerland and Italy. The conduct of referendums and related opinion polls deserve some thought as we plan for future alterations of the Constitution.