Michael D'Arcy (Fine Gael)

I wish to be associated with the Senator's words of welcome to our good friends from the United States. I think it was Tip O'Neill who coined the famous phrase that "all politics is local". Certainly, our version is more local than most. I have heard people talking about the austerity programme and the 3% budget deficit limit. We must examine a couple of the issues surrounding the 3% figure. It was something we agreed to back in 1996.

I want to touch upon the potentially severe consequences of not ratifying the treaty. The main issue is that Ireland will not have access to the European Stability Mechanism that will be the permanent bailout option for a country or nation locked out of the international bond markets. We must examine the consequences of that happening. Given that Ireland is locked out of the bond markets, it would then have only one source of income, the IMF. If the IMF is our only source of funding, I am very concerned about whether it will be prepared to fund our nation's programmes, such as social welfare, at their current level and fund salaries for public sector employees. Will it make funds available to us to repay bonds on which we are obliged to make payments and which fall due in the period? The current programme of €67 billion being funded by the troika includes €14 billion to pay back any bonds that fall due. We could be faced with the prospect of not being able to pay current rates of social welfare payments, the salaries we pay to our civil and public servants, and not being able to fund our State and pay bonds. That is a real danger for us as a nation.

Let us not pretend that the solution will be all nicey-nicey and fuzzy-wuzzy and sure we will find it somewhere. We will not be finding it somewhere. The shortfall has the potential to cause the nation to default. If we do, all bonds will become due, not just the ones due on the particular date. The people need to be informed that the scenario I have outlined could be a consequence of voting "No". I do not want people to say that they did not know that. It is crucial that those of us involved in the body politic put out the correct information to allow people to make an informed decision. For too long people have chosen to ignore the consequences.

The primary result of doing this has been a political one whereby elections have been bought. I am not trying to be political because, as the Leas-Chathaoirleach and Leader will know, when I make a statement it will be based on what I believe to be the facts. It happened in the 1970s with the reduction and erosion of the tax base, the consequence of which a few years down the line was that the IMF almost came here in the early 1980s. It also happened in the middle part of the first decade of the 21st century, the period when the real damage was done. It was the Bertie Ahern era and when Brian Cowen, the future Taoiseach, became the Minister for Finance. That was the time to have reined in the spending, which would have reduced the damage that occurred in November 2010.

I want to explain the situation in the easiest way possible for people to grasp and understand. We must ensure that the next time a Bertie Ahern-type figure appears, rather than allowing him or her do as they choose and ignoring the Legislature, we ensure he or she is never let loose on the body politic again. My one criticism is that the Opposition at the time, which would include the opposition in the parliamentary parties of the Government parties, should have been stronger.

I am going to the United States on Saturday where I will meet three companies that invited me over. I hope to get them to invest in Ireland, specifically, for my own political interests, in Wexford. The chief financial officers from the three companies each asked me what the consequences would be if Ireland voted "No" to the fiscal treaty. I honestly replied that I did not know, and the truth is a lot of people do not know, including those who urge us to vote "No" and make comments along the lines of putting it up to them. I am not prepared to put that to the people. A successful outcome to the treaty is required in order that we never end up, in the short or long term, in the position I outlined. The political consequences would be dire and effectively would cause the nation to default, thus leading to the closure of hospitals and a massive reduction in public sector pay and social welfare benefits. The nation is not ready or prepared for that. I will vote for this treaty and advance the process we started a little over two years ago.