Seanad debates

Thursday, 28 October 2010

Macro-Economic and Fiscal Outlook: Statements

 

1:00 pm

Photo of Eugene ReganEugene Regan (Fine Gael)

We are all agreed on the objective that must be achieved in terms of getting our public finances in order and that this is a prerequisite to restoring confidence of consumers and investors in the economy. We know the economy is in a perilous state and know the dangers we face and the risk to our sovereignty and that is the reason we are all resolved to work together to deal with the problem. There is quite a measure of consensus on getting agreement that we must reduce our budget deficit to 3% by 2014, whatever the size of the adjustment that is required. This is important politically. There is also consensus on the front-loading of the adjustment which must be made in order that we can identify the problem, deal with it and move on. There is also consensus - this emerged from the Minister of State's speech - that there needs to be structural reform. We need to use this opportunity to make the structural changes necessary to provide a sustainable economy for the future.

While there may not yet be agreement, there is debate on the balance of the taxation increases and expenditure cuts required. Fine Gael believes the balance should be 20% tax increases and 80% budgetary cuts, while the Labour Party believes it should be a 50-50 balance. It is important for the Government, if it is serious about structural reform and providing a basis for economic recovery, to clarify, elaborate and explain what the balance will be in the forthcoming budget. The Minister of State made the point in his speech that in the Dáil the Opposition complained that not enough figures had been presented to it. He assured us that the utmost will be done to ensure the plan, when published, will contain as many figures as reasonably can be provided. The Government must try to bring people along with it, and having the figures given out on budget day is a most unsatisfactory way to proceed. Given that everyone is trying to understand more fully the problem we have and the basis for the figures the Government has come up with in terms of the €15 billion adjustment, it is only reasonable that as much information as possible is provided to the Opposition and the public before the budget on 7 December.

This information is important because of previous figures we have received. We had definitive estimates figures and data provided by the Government on NAMA that it would make a projected profit of €4.8 billion, but that was revised subsequently to a possible loss of €800 million. We had projections on the capitalisation of our banks which were way off initial forecasts, especially the costs for saving Anglo Irish Bank which were totally and utterly off the radar. Therefore, when we ask for information and figures on the Government figures, we are asking on the basis that serious mistakes have been made by the Government, the Department of Finance and its advisers on projections regarding the current economic crisis. It is a mistake on the part of the Government not to be forthcoming with those figures.

We all agree on the objective and I have no doubt we can get out of the current economic crisis. It has been said that we have been here before in the 1980s and that the situation was resolved. We see some light at the end of the tunnel in terms of our export performance, which is remarkable in the current circumstances. However, we have seen the dramatic drop in investment over the past two years and in consumer demand over the past year. The only basis on which this can be reversed is if we get the public finances in order. People will then know where they stand in terms of their taxation position and their ability to purchase goods and services. It is only in circumstances where investors have confidence that the Government is managing the economy in a responsible manner that investment will resume.

We are all agreed that the prerequisite for this is to deal with the public finances, but the question is how we should deal with them. In many ways the Government has tied its hands. It has also resiled from a number of decisions that were part of the budget stabilisation process agreed a year ago, for example, when the budget reversed the decision relating to pay for senior civil servants. It has also postponed pension reform proposals which were to be introduced sooner. There is also the Croke Park agreement. While it has many good elements, the problem is whether they will ever be implemented. One example of a provision in the agreement concerns parties agreeing to the redeployment of staff within and across each sector. We had an example recently where the IDA needed extra staff, but there was no question of transferring staff from Enterprise Ireland, which has a surplus of staff given the cutbacks in that area, because of the difficulties of making those transfers. Instead of redeployment, we went back on the decision of limiting new appointments. The Croke Park agreement has tied the hands of the Government. This brings us to the issue of fairness and means that these types of decisions lead us to a situation where the focus switches to those dependent on social welfare and the education and health areas. If we are to have real structural reform and to ensure the cutbacks are fair and reasonable, and seen to be so, the ad hoc decisions in regard to pay for senior civil servants and pension reform cannot be taken out of the context of the overall objective to be achieved.

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