Áine Brady (Kildare North, Fianna Fail)

Last week the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government, Deputy John Gormley, briefed the Dáil on final preparations for the 15th conference of the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the fifth meeting of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The meeting has begun since in Copenhagen and will continue until 18 December. The eyes of the world are on Copenhagen and anticipation of a successful outcome will mount next week when Heads of State and Government meet for the final day of the summit. I am pleased to have the opportunity to make this statement in the Seanad today.

As the Minister stated in the Dáil last week, it is important to acknowledge that Ireland has consistently and fully supported EU proactivity and leadership in the international climate change process under the UN convention. That position stands and is underpinned by the strength of the scientific advice on the potential impact of climate change and the urgency of a comprehensive and effective global response. EU policy on what constitutes a comprehensive and effective global response to climate change is reflected in the substantial body of conclusions which the Council has adopted over a number of years, most recently at its meetings last month. They set out a clear and strong EU mandate for the Copenhagen conference, based on the fundamental objective of keeping the increase in average global temperature to within 2 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels in order to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.

The European Union recognises the process established under the UN convention as the appropriate forum through which to develop and implement an effective global response to the threat of climate change. The ultimate objective of the convention is clear - greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere must be stabilised at a safe level. The 2 degrees Celsius goal adopted by the Union responds to that objective.

The scientific advice from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is also clear on the need for early and effective action. A significant milestone towards achieving this objective is the absolute priority for the Copenhagen conference; the case for action is not a option, particularly when we reflect on the plight of people in developing countries who are living on the climate front line.

At the end of the penultimate round of international negotiations in advance of COP 15 the European Union restated its firm commitment to reaching a comprehensive, fair and legally binding treaty in Copenhagen. To be effective, the treaty must cover all countries and reflect a level of ambition consistent with the objective of keeping the increase in global temperature within 2 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels.

More specifically, the successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol must respond to the four key elements of the Bali action plan - mitigation, adaptation, technology transfer and finance. It must also provide a clear and strong context for action in the form of an overarching long-term goal - a shared vision which responds to the 2 degrees Celsius objective by aiming to ensure global emissions peak by 2020 at the latest, reduce by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels and continue on a downward trend thereafter.

In the international negotiations questions have been raised recently about the EU commitment to the Kyoto Protocol - questions suggesting the European Union is somehow trying to walk away from the protocol. Nothing could be further from reality; the Union has always been and remains firmly committed to the Kyoto Protocol, its structure and objectives.

To be absolutely clear on the issue, the EU preference for the post-2012 commitment period is a single, legally binding instrument under the convention that would enhance implementation and ensure consistency in the application of the post-2012 international climate regime, in other words, a new protocol that would build on the Kyoto Protocol and incorporate its fundamental structure, particularly its provisions on key issues such as legally binding quantified emission reduction commitments for all developed countries, robust reporting, monitoring and compliance requirements, flexible mechanisms, and requirements on land use, land use change and forestry. In summary, the EU objective is to broaden the scope and effectiveness of the international response to climate change in the post-2012 period without compromising on the principles or structure of the Kyoto Protocol.

A clear case for broadening the scope and effectiveness of the international climate change regime is made by the need to address ecosystem emissions. While attention to date has focused on fossil fuel emissions, greenhouse gases from ecosystems, including agriculture, natural forests and plantations, and wetlands, are a major contributor to the problem. In addition, the potential for these ecosystems to absorb carbon is an essential element of an integrated response to climate change. The Kyoto Protocol addresses some, but not all, of these carbon emissions and sinks.

The worst potential consequences of a policy framework which addresses fossil fuels but mostly does not address ecosystem emissions are increased pressure on these natural ecosystems. We have seen an example of how this would work in the destruction of peatland rainforests to facilitate the production of palm oil. We must ensure the new agreement does not create any such perverse incentives. The scope of the successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol must cover all aspects of ecosystem emissions, including all forests, and soil carbon associated with forest management, cropland and grazing land management, wetlands and deforestation.

In seeking to influence an ambitious new global agreement the European Union has provided a clear signal on a mid-term goal. It has adopted a 20% greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2020 compared to 1990 levels and committed to step up to a 30% target, subject to two conditions, that other developed countries commit themselves to comparable reductions and that developing countries contribute adequately according to their responsibilities and respective capabilities. However, that level of global action by 2020 may not be enough. Since publication of the intergovernmental panel's fourth assessment report in 2007, scientific studies have suggested consistently that the warming process is happening more rapidly than anticipated and that, therefore, the emission reductions proposed in the 2007 report may be insufficient. A consensus is emerging among leading climate scientists that we may need to not only reduce our emissions but also have net reductions in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. They are suggesting a target level of 350 ppm, parts per million, while current concentrations are over 380 ppm. The next report from the intergovernmental panel is due in 2014 and a priority in the negotiations is ensuring a new global agreement includes a review of targets and objectives by the end of 2016.

Turning to finance, a new treaty on climate change simply will not happen unless it includes a comprehensive financial package to assist developing countries in key areas such as capacity building, mitigation, adaptation, technology and protection of their forests. Based on figures developed by the European Commission, the European Union has strengthened the focus in the international negotiations on finance by setting out estimates of short and long-term needs. In summary, the cost of mitigation and adaptation action in developing countries could amount to around €100 billion annually by 2020. Of that amount, the international public support element could be in the range of €22 billion to €50 billion annually. That is the longer term position, beginning in 2013. There is also the more immediate need for fast-start international public support for developing countries which the Commission estimates could be in the range of €5 billion to €7 billion per year in the three-year period 2010 to 2013.

The EU is committed to paying its fair share at an international level and Ireland is committed to paying its fair share of the EU contribution. One point to make absolutely clear is that we see the international climate change agenda and the millennium development goals as parallel priorities. They are not competing priorities and any suggestion to that effect is entirely unacceptable.

Before I conclude on finance, I know that there are people who believe that, in view of the economic downturn, action on climate change should be deferred or given a lower priority in the shorter term. Such views are both misguided and damaging. Within the EU, the Council is perfectly clear on this point. The Minister welcomes and fully supports its decision to underline the opportunity and the need to build on the synergies between action on climate change and economic recovery. We agree with its view on the need to seek a long-term financial and economic architecture that will integrate our approach to climate change with our goal of transition to a sustainable economy. Only a sustainable economy is compatible with avoiding dangerous climate change and addressing the inevitable impacts of existing concentrations of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.

I refer to the changed outlook for the Copenhagen conference which has become evident and is being widely reported in the media. We now know that a new, fully fledged treaty is most unlikely to be achieved in Copenhagen. In spite of the clear commitment by the parties at their 13th conference in Bali in 2007 to finalise a new treaty in 2009, we have run out of time to complete the task in Copenhagen. At best we are now looking at the possibility of a politically binding agreement rather than a legally binding treaty. That is disappointing. As the Minister said last week, it flies in the face of the fact that we are all too quickly approaching a point where the impact of climate change will become significantly more challenging and more costly to address.

Responding to this setback for the international process, the European Commission has said that the minimum outcome in Copenhagen must be a framework agreement on the essential building blocks of the new treaty and a deadline for completing it. The agreement must include ambitious emissions reduction commitments by developed countries, adequate action to curb emissions growth by developing countries, and a financial deal to assist developing countries both in mitigating their emissions and adapting to climate change.

The Minister's immediate reaction, in addition to his disappointment, is that the framework agreement will have to be convincing on the commitment of all parties and the timeframe for finalising the treaty will have to be short. We welcome the fact that a number of key players in the international negotiations, including Brazil, Mexico, the United States, Indonesia, China and, in recent days, India and South Africa, have announced pledges. This momentum in the process is encouraging. However, as Connie Hedegaard, the Danish environment minister, said at the opening of the meeting this week, "We are not there yet".

As regards the international agenda, it is difficult to predict what the outcome of COP-15 will be. I can say with certainty, however, that the EU's commitment and determination to reaching a new legally binding treaty to succeed the Kyoto Protocol is undiminished. The Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government, Deputy John Gormley, was at the first COP in Berlin 15 years ago, but it is certain that this 15th meeting of the parties in Copenhagen will be the most defining gathering of a generation. The importance of this meeting is recognised globally, with more than 100 world leaders, including the Taoiseach, Deputy Brian Cowen, attending for the final days.

Turning briefly to national policy, tomorrow, the Minister, Deputy Gormley, will publish the country's annual carbon budget which will include details of the Government's proposed climate change legislation. It will enshrine in law the key climate change policies and principles that will be essential if we are to reduce our emissions and move to a sustainable, low-carbon economy and society. We have already made that start through massive investment in renewable energy and new regulations and incentives to encourage low-emission housing and transport. Transition to a low-carbon world economy will happen quickly and we have two choices: to move with it or be left behind. There is quite simply no alternative to transition and we know it can be done. It is both technically feasible, economically affordable and eminently sensible. It will present both challenges and opportunities. Getting our policy right is about minimising the challenges and maximising the opportunities for people and the environment.