Joe O'Toole (Independent)

It is interesting to note the European Union's prognosis for the next couple of years. It indicates that, whereas there will be no growth in Ireland again next year, the rate of growth in the economy in the following year will be greater than 2%, faster than anywhere else in Europe. I make this point because as talks continue between the social partners and the Government, it is very important to look forward.

I recall that during the last election the leader of Fine Gael spoke of a contract with the people. This is something the Government should examine very seriously. There is a need for a social contract. People will not spend while they are afraid, frustrated or until they know what is their future. It is not enough to say to them we must cut their wages or cut back on whatever service. They need to know when it will end. Only when they know when it will end and when they see themselves coming out of it will they have the confidence to put money back into the economy. That is a sine qua non.

I would like people to get inside the minds of trade unionists and trade union leaders. I was around in 1987 when we were told there was no money in the country. We found out four years later during the tribunals that the country was awash with money, except that it was all leaving the country. Of the economists lecturing us, not one of them forecast the downturn in the economy. We stated as much to the Leader one year ago. I have an article from the Irish Examiner in my office dating from this week last year which shows the forecasts of all these economists for this year. Not one of them was even close to the reality. Let us not be taken in by them. They know no more than we do.