Ivana Bacik (Independent)

I join others in welcoming the Minister of State. I also welcome the draft business plan, albeit that I will be critical of it. It is useful to have a draft plan, but we have to treat it with caution given that, as the Minister said, the data on which the plan is based are provisional in nature. The estimates are based on data provided by the five credit institutions which are most likely to engage with NAMA, namely, AIB, Anglo Irish Bank, Bank of Ireland, EBS and Irish Nationwide. Clearly, NAMA has not yet had the opportunity to assess in forensic detail the loan books involved. Therefore, we could anticipate that there is likely to be some degree of change in the figures we have been given. Therefore we must be cautious about them.

Having read the draft plan, I echo the words of Deputy Burton's response when the plan was first introduced in the Dáil. She described it as showing that Christmas will come early for the top developers and their bankers. She commented that, given that ten to 15 of the largest loans will be transferred to NAMA before Christmas of this year and that the exposure of the top ten gives a projected value of €16 billion in total, it is likely, given the discount NAMA is applying, that it will pay €11.2 billion for these debts. The likelihood is that a high proportion of these will be in Anglo Irish Bank. As Deputy Burton said, it does not restore confidence among taxpayers when this is the sort of discount that is being given to big developers. Nothing in the content of the business plan or in the discussions since then has changed that view.

I noticed in one of last Sunday's newspapers that the business plan was referred to as a triumph of optimism over aggression, the view being that it was unduly optimistic in its forecasts and in the figures it contained and insufficiently aggressive in terms of the stated intention to pursue developers for loans outstanding. One of the figures the Minister of State quoted and that jumps out on page six of the plan is the estimation that 40% of the assets to be acquired by NAMA will be cash-generating. Again, that seems to be based on a rather optimistic view of the nature of the assets to be acquired. Will the Minister of State indicate from where precisely that estimate is derived and is it likely that it will be altered once the forensic analysis has been done?

The key question about NAMA that has been asked, which perhaps Simon Carswell put most concisely in an edition of The Irish Times in September, is that if the bank loans destined for NAMA are only currently worth €47 billion, given the 47% fall in value that NAMA's team has estimated, why will the Government pay the five participating lenders €54 billion. That key question remains. From discussions outside this House, it is the question that is plaguing taxpayers. I will await the Minister of State's attention before proceeding.

The question, as Simon Carswell has suggested, is that the Government's purchase price does not reflect the full scale of the decline in property value, and represents an overpayment of €7 billion at least given the market value. I have read the NAMA legislation and I know the Minister of State's response to that point would be that it is based on a different valuation having regard to a projected increase in values and so on. This is still the key question taxpayers will ask. Simon Carswell memorably referred to NAMA as a lifeboat, which the Government hopes will be seaworthy with oars and a powerful motor leased cheaply from Europe that should ensure safe navigation to calmer waters. The lifeboat of the Minister for Finance, Deputy Brian Lenihan, requires a chart to map its way through the turbulent waters ahead. The draft plan is all we have by way of such a chart; this draft business plan represents the seafarers' chart. A concern about it is the over-valuation and over-payment for assets.

I wish to raise a few queries I have from my reading of the plan. A concern, which others have raised, as covered on page 8 of the plan, is the enormous proportion of NAMA loan portfolio made up of Anglo Irish Bank loans. The Minister of State said that 37% of the overall portfolio is made up of Anglo Irish Bank loans - €28.4 billion of the €77 billion book value of the loans. That is a concern knowing what we now know about Anglo Irish Bank. More than two thirds of the property on which the loans are based is in Ireland, but one third of the property is outside Ireland and there is an issue around pursuing those loans.

I wish to raise two further points, one of which relates to the staffing of the agency. The Minister of State said, as is stated on page 20 of the plan, that the staffing of the agency will be 30 to 35 by December of this year and a further 40 to 45 staff will be taken on by March of next year. He said the agency will have a full staffing capacity of 75. Is he satisfied that is a sufficient number of staff? We heard this morning at the Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement that IntertradeIreland regards a staff of 42 as barely adequate to cover dealing with approximately 1,500 firms. Is a staffing capacity of 75 sufficient for NAMA given the enormous task it is undertaking?

I note the administration of loans will remain with the original institution, as stated on page 28 of the plan. That is a concern, given that the Minister has repeatedly assured us that NAMA will pursue developers aggressively. The Minister of State said that only 100 to 150 of the main borrowers will be managed directly by NAMA. That means the others will all be managed by the existing institutions. Taxpayers would rightly be concerned that would mean they would not be managed or pursued sufficiently aggressively.