Eoghan Harris (Independent)

There are three questions we must ask ourselves. How bad is this recession, whose fault — if anyone's — is it and what should be done? Judging by what I saw on television yesterday — I was in hospital and had a chance to watch television — and as viewed through the eyes of the general people, I have no evidence thus far that colleagues in the Upper or Lower House grasp the seriousness of this recession. It is global, deep and there is no end in sight. It will get worse before it gets better. I heard the top Bloomberg analyst say the other day say it has a double peak. Behind the bad news of the first peak or when we have climbed the first peak, we will see another bad news peak behind it.

I understand why the Taoiseach, who has a good and clear grasp of the situation, would not want to play up public fears, but I do not agree with that approach. We are faced with a global recession and a national emergency, given that, I believe, unemployment will hit 700,000 or perhaps higher and personal debt is astronomical. The Government is close to a situation where Irish bonds will not be trusted and it will not be able to borrow. I do not know to where the Government can turn, except to those parts of society which are able to bear the burden. In a situation such as this, there is a growth of fear, anger and denial. That is what is currently prevailing. There is so much fear that people are not thinking straight.

First, there is all this loose talk of fat cats. Every wealthy person in Ireland, Tony O'Reilly, the Smurfits, whoever you want to name, has seen their wealth cut by between 50% and 60%. Therefore, they certainly are bearing the brunt of the recession. Second, the professional classes could do with bearing some of the brunt of the burden and a start was made by the Government, but they will have to bear more of it. For example in the case of doctors, the State has cut their fees, but they and other professional classes should be forced to cut their fees, professional classes in their private capacity.

Then there are the bankers. Again, I am struck by the way the climate of fear prevents people from thinking clearly. In terms of the media, RTE in particular is at fault in this because it, being a public sector institution, is anxious to spin away from scrutiny of its own wage rates for presenters and higher paid staff. RTE is anxious to work up hysteria about banks and so on. The fact of life is that the Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks are solvent institutions. The problem is they need to write off some of their property portfolios to close the market gap. The market does not believe they are valued at €8 billion, it believes they are valued at €3 billion less than that. It believes the true value of each of the banks is probably closer to €5 billion. It would be welcome if the Government talked to the banks and got them to write down their real assets in terms of what the market believes them to be, which is approximately €5 billion. We could then have an honest start.

On the banking issue, some people in Anglo Irish Bank behaved badly. I am all for handcuffs and the Criminal Assets Bureau being brought in to deal with bankers who commit criminal offences, but just because one smallish bank behaved badly is no reason to create an air of panic and hysteria that all the banks are facing meltdown. The assets of both of the larger banks are quite solid and they should seriously consider amalgamation to become a kind of Ryanair bank in Europe. They are both too small to be European players. They should amalgamate.

Beyond that, the only brunt that can be borne is by those of us in permanent and pensionable employment. That is the class that must be targeted. I was struck with disbelief when I listened to speeches on the public sector from Senator O'Toole and others. I cannot understand, when workers in Dell and Waterford Crystal are losing their jobs, people in permanent and pensionable employment have so little grasp of reality. I will spell it out for them.

For every €100 earned by a private sector worker, a public sector worker gets a premium of 20%. On top of that, they are being paid between 15% and 30% — the economists disagree — on a premium of their pension. In other words, in addition to the 20% they get a further 30% in value from their pension. In other words, for every €100 earned by private sector workers, public sector workers earn €150. They produce 30% less in terms of productivity. They are off sick more often and they are the greatest crowd of self-appointed victims I have ever come across. They are not victims in this society. They are the fat cats of society but they do not like to accept that.

Any of us who are asked to look at our incomes will come up with reasons we cannot pay. Ryan Tubridy, the RTE broadcaster, said he could not pay up because of personal reasons. None of us wants to pay up but we will have to do so.