Martin Mansergh (Tipperary South, Fianna Fail)

The Senator has a legitimate point when he refers to the demographic structure of this country compared to that of other countries. However, we have a significantly smaller public service than some of those countries. I do not believe the size of the public service is disproportionate or out of kilter, even taking account of our stage of development. I disagree with the Senator on that point.

Most bodies who make projections for ten or 15 years, or even beyond that, see that period as a time of opportunity to eliminate or largely eliminate some of our historical deficits. In other words, the demographic and social provision pressures will not really begin to impact seriously until the 2020s and beyond. There is a window of opportunity, therefore, over the next ten to 15 years. That would be part of Government thinking; for example, there is heavy emphasis on getting our infrastructure up to speed because we might have resources to do that now that might not necessarily be available to the same extent in the future.

It is probably always a danger to take any given point in time, whether things are going well, badly or indifferently, and extrapolate that into the future. We simply do not know how matters will develop. Let us take the example of the current economic situation. I was in the public service in the late 1970s and early 1980s. It was thought then that the recession at that time, while quite deep, would be of relatively short duration. That was not the case. It was quite a long siege that lasted several years. We can hope, as turned out to be the situation in 2002 and 2003 or in the early 1990s, that any downturn — and by downturn I do not mean recession but simply greatly diminished growth — will be of relatively short duration. However, we cannot know whether it will be, for which reason the Government must act prudently. Were one to have an absolute assurance that growth would resume at 4% or 5% next year, one's response today might be different than is actually the case, as the volatile international climate and specific domestic factors must also be taken into account.

What public services can be provided is materially connected to the state of the economy and the revenue supplied. There is no doubt that the buoyancy since 1993 or 1994 has enabled us to make significant improvements in public services, but they cannot be divorced from the level of resources available. I agree with Senator Donohoe's basic point in that challenging times lie ahead for everyone in the public service, which includes the Government and other political parties in its broadest sense. For this reason, the report is timely and we must pay close attention to anything capable of improving public service delivery and efficiency.