Shane Ross (Independent)

——that has been taken up at a timely point in the electoral cycle.

An aspect of such plans with which I have difficulties is that they are built on certain assumptions, none of which can be taken for granted. I gather that this plan is based on the assumption that Ireland will achieve an average growth rate of 4.5% for the next eight years. While I do not know the source of this assumption, it has been plucked out of the air. There is no reason whatever for believing it except that it constitutes pure guesswork on the part of an economist in the Department of Finance. A real plan would not simply assume a growth rate of 4.5%. It would proceed on the basis that in the event of the achievement of a particular growth rate, this, that or the other would be done. This plan reveals the Government's intentions in the event of a growth rate of 4.5%.

However, what will happen if such growth rates are not achieved? What will happen if the Government suffers the same problems as those faced earlier this week by the auctioneers? The latter decided that because house prices were falling, their revenue would drop and that consequently, they would raise commissions. This is an outrageous thing for them to do. It is completely non-competitive and I presume it will not work. However, were the Government to adopt the same attitude, it would increase, rather than reduce, stamp duty. It would note the fall in revenue from stamp duty because of the decline or stabilisation of the housing market and the associated reduction in turnover and would increase stamp duty to prevent a collapse in revenue. This plan assumes that everything, particularly in the construction industry, will continue in the same prosperous way it did in the past and that turnover will remain stable or increase. I do not know whether this is true and neither does anybody else. Absolutely no provision is made for a situation where we are not as well-off as we might be, only an assumption of a flourishing economy. I hope it is true. However, it is fairyland to present a plan and state it is the only possible situation which can arise.

I was also struck by the loudly lauded rhetoric produced by the Minister when he departed from his supplied script. I listened to it on the monitor. As Ministers always do, he continuously gave credit for much of the economic boom to the social partners.