According to the OECD, after showing remarkable resilience up to the third quarter of 2002, the economy seems to have lost momentum as export growth slowed and confidence weakened substantially. The economy will, therefore, have entered 2003 with little momentum. However, given the expected recovery of world economic growth and the negative impact of the earlier appreciation of the euro fading, Irish GDP growth is forecast by the OECD to increase from 3.25% in 2003 to 4.25% in 2004. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to edge up. Inflation is forecast to fall due to wage moderation and the impact of the euro appreciation. The HICP rate is forecast by the OECD to fall from 4.75% in 2002 to 4.25% in 2003 and to fall more sharply in 2004. The Department of Finance will be updating its economic projections for this year in its economic outlook and review, which will be published later this summer.