Steering an economy, like steering a boat, cannot ignore weather conditions. Much of the debate on the Estimates simply disregards economic circumstances which have worsened considerably over the past two years. There has been a downturn in the world economy and, during last spring and early summer – which also happened to be the time of the general election – there were hopes of a lift this year. However, the international gloom has set in again and, possibly, the uncertainty as to what will happen in relation to Iraq is part of that. Another aspect left out of account is the fact that the economy is still running fairly close to full capacity with virtually full employment, taking the country as a whole, although, of course, there are still pockets of serious unemployment. That is reflected in the inflation rate which, at about 4%, is currently the highest in the European Union. Arguments for higher Government spending against the background of a huge increase in public spending over the last five years, tends to overlook the fact that we are operating at nearly full capacity.