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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: Windfall is categorised as corporation tax receipts going from €5 billion last year to €7 billion this year when that type of increase was not forecasted.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: I know that.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: I understand that.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: I will come back to that point.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: Going forward, where the expenditure benchmark is there, foreign direct investment and whether there is a €3 billion windfall in corporation tax receipts will not actually impact on our ability to increase expenditure year on year if we are compliant.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: But that is only because of the ten year-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: When we talk about the volatility of corporation tax receipts, and those receipts being spent in the economy, and we know there are a lot of demands in terms of housing, health and infrastructure, if we are complying with the expenditure benchmark we can only spend a certain amount of money in any given year anyway.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: Is that discussion a moot discussion?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: That we are spending all the corporation tax receipts and they are volatile.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: I know.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: An impression is being given the bumper corporation tax receipts result in increased expenditure, where the reality is even if we did not have the bumper corporation tax receipts we saw several years ago, and they are increasing bit by bit, the same level of expenditure would have taken place. It would have been just probably more debt borrowing to fund this type of expenditure, because the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: For how long will-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: No, that is okay. The other point I want to make is in regard to the Commission's report. I wrote to Mr. Coffey about this and I am still waiting for a response. I wrote to him earlier this month seeking some clarification on this. We had an engagement with the Department on this issue but the Commission in its report stated: "Overall, the Council is of the opinion that further measure...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: I know the fiscal council was very vocal about that. What I am trying to get from Mr. Coffey is where does the fiscal council come down in regard to the stand-off between the Commission and the Department because there is a stand-off now.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: The fiscal council has sympathy for the Department of Finance.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: Okay, on the basis that it should not apply the rules retrospectively or go with the medium-term objective, and even if expenditure benchmark is breached significantly, which would have required an adjustment in 2017, the only time it can make that analysis is in 2018 by which time it would have reached its MTO, on which side would the fiscal council come down, that the Commission is wrong or...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: I agree with Mr. Tutty 100% and I agree with the Department on this one. The principle should apply. Rules were rules at the time and one cannot start changing the rules afterwards with the serious consequences that would have. There is a reference in the fiscal council's report to the Brexit fallout and a stability programme update, which is based on a hard Brexit. I hate the terms...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: That is the point I want to deal with. Mr. Coffey said that the expected impact of a hard Brexit may have been underestimated by the COSMO-simulations which inform the Department's views on the medium-term impact on the Irish economy. These were the simulations that considered higher debt, more unemployment or less employment, whatever way we want to view it, and less growth. If it was...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: What is the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council analysis of the underestimation? I know the council does not have figures and cannot put the numbers on it, as the Department has done. Does the council believe that the underestimation could be significant given the three areas Mr. Casey has spoken to us about?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council: Discussion (20 Jun 2017)

Pearse Doherty: What engagement, if any, has the council had with the Department and the ESRI? Whatever about the assessment in the past, we need to get this right. Obviously, future policy will be dependent on trying to get an understanding. There will be some clarity at some stage on the outcome and whether we are looking at World Trade Organization tariffs and so on. We need to have the model right...

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