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Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Taking up that theme, in his presentation, Professor FitzGerald spoke about a tumour. He used the analogy of a tumour in respect of how the property market and the banking sector had spread throughout the economy. How did such a tumour go undetected by the ESRI on the basis that it produced reports for the Department of Finance in 2003 on the national development plan, where it was very...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Yet you-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: The ESRI is an independent body that does not occupy a political world. Why with all these winds in the air in terms of inflows of funds from US banks for the Irish banking sector and the property bubble that were highlighted independently on a myriad of occasions, did the ESRI baulk in the 2008 report-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: I withdraw the comment. Objectively, why does the 2008 report read as if things were normal and we were in for a soft landing? Why does one not get that sense of impending danger in terms of the property market and the fiscal situation for Ireland? If the ESRI is independent and was highlighting all these issues that came up in the media in terms of comments made by Professor FitzGerald's...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Based on Professor FitzGerald's mistake, what was the fundamental issue in a situation where property prices were falling, there was the whole issue of the sub-prime market in the US and those funds were flowing into Irish banks as well? What was the basis for his decision, given he now honestly admits he made a mistake in the 2008 medium-term report?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Is it fair to say the HERMES modelling was outdated? Was there a problem with the ESRI's modelling techniques at that moment in time? Did it factor in the particular peculiarities of Ireland in terms of the banking sector and 25% of the economy being based around construction?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: I will finish on one further point. Professor FitzGerald made reference in his statement to the fact 2003 was effectively where we took the wrong route. Looking back, he said that he highlighted to the Government over successive periods that particular measures should be brought in to control the housing sector. In 1998, and I remember the time, mortgage interest relief for rental...

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Did Professor FitzGerald highlight that 2002 change?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Does Professor FitzGerald believe that?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: This is a final question.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: That question was not answered.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Does Professor FitzGerald believe the reintroduction of mortgage interest relief for investment properties was a key factor in fuelling the property bubble?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Let me rephrase-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Can I just rephrase that question?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Does Professor FitzGerald believe that the reintroduction of mortgage interest relief for investment properties was a factor in fuelling the property bubble from 2003 on?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: When the AIB economists contacted Professor FitzGerald, did either he or the economists contact the Financial Regulator or the Central Bank?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Why not?

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Professor FitzGerald had a history of contacting the Central Bank.

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Professor FitzGerald spoke about groupthink in Ireland. In terms of a society of our size, does he believe sufficient resources are being put into independent bodies coming up with retaining the integrity of those bodies? Does he think that the ESRI in terms of its structure was compromised in terms of its-----

Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis: Context Phase (11 Feb 2015)

Kieran O'Donnell: Does Professor FitzGerald believe there was any way in which, in terms of the effectiveness of the ERSI, it was not able to function in a truly independent manner?

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