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Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: That is a matter for PwC and the Department of Health.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: When they check it with me and I have a figure, I will share it with the committee.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I do not know.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Some €100 million.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: We will be able to identify that figure fully with the Department of Health.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: No. I have separate work under way with the Department of Health.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I still believe it is more likely than not that there will be an agreement.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Given how sensitive all of this is, for me to put a probability on it would not be helpful.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I still believe it is more likely than not that there will be an orderly Brexit, but the chances that there will be no agreement and that there will be a disorderly Brexit are clearly growing.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: It is to ensure the legal provisions are in place to allow access and flights to continue between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: The Commission and the United Kingdom are engaging with each other, working on an agreement that would put in place a contingency regulation for air connectivity, providing for a time extension of seven months to allow airlines, particularly airlines impacted on by ownership rules, to implement restructuring plans, subject to certain conditions.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Yes.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: In our current central scenario, where there is an agreement and a transitionary period, in 2019 the number of people at work will be 2.32 million, an increase on the base figure of 2.259 million. In a no-deal scenario in 2019 we anticipate 15,000 fewer jobs being created than would have otherwise happened. In 2020 we believe 52,000 fewer jobs would be created.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: No, although perhaps we are splitting hairs. There would be 52,000 fewer jobs created. This means that more jobs would be created than in a previous year but fewer jobs would be created in a no-deal scenario.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: We have done that. We are anticipating that the unemployment rate will go from approximately 5% to 7%.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: It would amount to 30,000 to 40,000 being affected.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Yes.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Not really. If we were to publish many scenarios and their economic consequences, it would undermine the utility of the work done in the first place. What we have just said is based on the best information available to us and it is what we think is most likely to happen.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: We have not done anything beyond what we have already published. We have a central case scenario which was included on budget day and there is a no-deal scenario, the figures for which I published last week. We do not have a secret set of figures beyond them.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach (5 Feb 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: That is correct.

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