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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: Before we go to that point, assuming that the Government's definition of core spending were to be accepted by Professor McMahon, does he accept these figures?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: Why does Mr. Conroy say that it does not do much in terms of the tax level overall?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: Yes, I understand that. Does the IFAC include indexing social welfare rates in the net core spending rule?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: In terms of the calculation of core expenditure increases-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: To clarify, in the IFAC definition of the net-spending rule, the tax cuts that are in line with indexation are not included and social welfare increases in line with indexation are not included. Is that correct?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: Increases in social welfare, in line with indexation, are included but tax cuts in line with indexation are not included. Is that correct?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: If social welfare rates were not increased in line with inflation, expenditure would go down. Is that correct?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: Sorry, the level of projected expenditure would go down.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: I am running out of time. The IFAC's breakdown of stand-still costs is very clear in relation to health costs. It is very clear that the SPU forecast for spending in 2024 underestimates spending and looks unrealistic. It says that after four months of the year, the gross voted expenditure is already overrun by €500 million. It also says that this is expected because the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: Of the €1.7 billion overrun, how much of that is an under-provision? When we say an overrun of €1.7 billion it paints a picture the HSE as a runaway train, one that cannot be controlled and is splurging money on things. Many of us believed the Government under-provided and this was inevitable in a demand-led service. Is that the case?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: I have one last question regarding the health budget.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: The council identified up to €1 billion of underprovision and now there is probably a bit more that is over-running. If an organisation does not get an appropriate budget, it runs on emergency services and is not able to plan properly. Is the council concerned that the underprovision is resulting in further overruns? Does the witnesses understand the point I am making in that the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: I have a couple of questions. In his opening statement, Professor McMahon spoke about fiscal gimmickry, non-core expenditure and the way in which it is presented. He made the point that much of the spending is likely to be long lasting and, therefore, should be calculated in core expenditure. What is Professor McMahon's definition of long lasting?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: I appreciate that. We have discussed this in the past in the context of how the Government has started to present the numbers, particularly regarding those who have come to these shores and the cost associated with them. It presented figures which suggested everyone was going to go home or there was no cost to be borne. That has been corrected here. I bring Professor McMahon back to his...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: Yes.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: I hear what Professor McMahon is saying. We will move on from this point with regard to core and non-core spending, although I would argue that there is a rationale for windfall capital expenditure. I have argued for years that we need a catch-up programme for capital expenditure. Itemising it as a catch-up programme would create a baseline of what we believe is the permanent capital...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: Yes.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: IFAC's report states real wages in 2024 will be lower than the level they were at in 2021. This comment will feed through to many workers and families. Will the witnesses confirm that living standards are lower now than they were three years ago?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: The report also addresses the cost of existing level of service. IFAC's estimate suggests the stability programme update forecasts of current spending increases are on average €700 million lower than the annual standstill costs in 2025, 2026 and 2027. IFAC suggests there is an under-provision on this end also and draws attention to the ageing population. I want to clarify how IFAC...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (19 Jun 2024)

Pearse Doherty: We are dealing with apples and oranges in a way. The Department is stating that IFAC is taking it as granted that social welfare rates would be indexed. It will state it is a policy decision and it will strip out existing level of service. The IGEES recommendation is 3% of total current expenditure for the year. Would the IGEES's model of calculating existing level of service be an...

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