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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: From 2021 onwards we have moved from 2.5% to 3.25% of planned expenditure growth. For 2020, I have not announced an expenditure increase beyond that which is pre-committed because I have not made a decision regarding the allocation of the €700 million.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Deputy Pearse Doherty is wrong when he states that there is no increase for next year.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: That has not happened because we have not made a decision regarding the allocation of the €700 million. If I make a decision on budget day that the €700 million is going to be allocated to an expenditure increase and that there will be no change anywhere else, then that represents an expenditure increase on top of that to which we have already committed. The Deputy is trying...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: The role of the summer economic statement is to state what level of resources is available, on which we then make a decision. If I was coming in here with a medium-term current expenditure forecast of 2.5%, Deputy Pearse Doherty would, justifiably, criticise me on the back of not responding to what the IFAC have done. I have changed that.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: No, I have not done that for this year and I have explained why.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: The Deputy is asking a question that can only be answered on budget day when we make a decision regarding the allocation of the €700 million.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: What we have done is increase our expenditure outlook for the coming year in current spending, as detailed a moment ago. We also increased the outlook in capital expenditure to deal with the cost of the national broadband plan as I indicated in my summer economic statement.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I am happy to return to that topic in the course of the session. As I have already indicated, however, we have increased our current and our capital provisioning for the medium term.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Dealing with the VAT question first, I am confident that our VAT target will be delivered across the full year. One of the reasons for that is that retail sales at the moment are up approximately 4% versus a year ago. Given the strong performance in the retail sector and a continued increase in the number of tourists visiting Ireland, it is very likely that we will deliver our figure for...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Well-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Yes, there is. We are looking at the different needs we may have in a disorderly Brexit scenario. It will be vital that budget 2020 is delivered in a way that is realistic and credible for our citizens and for financial markets. I will be able to do that.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I will not have a second budget.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: The Deputy referred to himself as a political observer but he is anything but that. He is a Deputy and a participant in our political process, as I am, and the difference he and I have versus the gentlemen he referred to a moment ago is that they are commenting on and analysing what is happening, which has a certain level of consequence. I have to make decisions, as does the Deputy, which...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I will know in September what the actual intention of the leader of the Conservative Party is once he has taken over as Prime Minister. We may then have a clearer view of the likely reaction of the European Union to that.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: To interject, an equal number of economists are commenting on the fact that we have been clear that we are going to do a single budget and that that is of value because if we enter into a situation of a disorderly Brexit happening over November and December, there is value for businesses in our country and for those on whom we may depend for support in the future being clear about what our...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Last year, we collected approximately €10 billion in corporation tax, rather than €14 billion or €15 billion. I do not believe the Deputy's suggestion - that all the funding that has been collected is windfall funding - represents a tenable assessment of the position. A lower amount was collected. While it is certainly possible in the coming period that not all of that...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: If a disorderly Brexit happens, it is possible that this country could be in a deficit position. I have outlined the figures for that. In such circumstances, a new capital project like the national broadband plan would be funded by part of the deficit as an additional commitment on top of our existing commitments. The context for the national broadband plan would change considerably in...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: We will have to include our own judgment on what is most likely to happen. In light of the potential for instability abroad, we thought it would be more important for us to be able to show stability at home as we plan our affairs.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: We will have general feedback from within our economy. Ultimately, it is a decision that will be made by the Government on the basis of what is most likely to happen. It will be political in nature. If the UK decides to leave the EU without an agreement, it will do so for its own reasons. My suspicion is that as we move through the year, and in particular as we move into September, the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Summer Economic Statement: Minister for Finance (3 Jul 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Phrases like "countercyclical" are economic in nature.

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