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Written Answers — Department of Public Expenditure and Reform: Pension Provisions (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I propose to take Questions Nos. 151 and 152 together. I would advise both Deputies that pensions for An Garda Síochána are a matter for the Minister for Justice and Equality. However, as the matter raised relates to pension policy for the public service generally, I will address the questions raised. Firstly, I should clarify that retirement lump sum payments made under...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I thank the Chairman and the committee for the opportunity to be here today. The budget will build upon the parameters outlined in the summer economic statement. Regarding the economic backdrop, the Irish economy continues to grow at a robust pace. Gross domestic product, GDP, growth of 8.2% was recorded in 2018 while growth of 3.9% is forecast for this year. We have one of the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I thank the Deputy. On his point about the CO2 testing regime and the consequences for the motor industry in Ireland, I met the Society of the Irish Motor Industry, SIMI, the representative body for car dealerships in Ireland, and we had a lengthy discussion on its concerns about the impact of introducing tax payments based on the real-time emissions of cars. We also had a lengthy...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: We will probably do it in a staged approach but we are debating that at the moment. If we continue in a deal environment or an agreement environment next year, we will point to the level of surplus we will have. We would expect a growth in our first surplus of this year into next year. We will be outlining in the budget documentation the predicted outcome in respect of our national...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: There will be one set of official statistics but they will have a contingency within them.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: That is my current thinking on the issue. We will not be producing two sets of accounts.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Yes. We are taking a cautionary approach within the €2.8 billion but, as I have outlined, I expect that additional measures will be needed in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I am saying that if we find ourselves in the position where we have to deal with a no-deal Brexit, additional measures will be needed which will, in all likelihood, amount to more than the €700 million.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: No, I would outline the measures on budget day.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I will obviously be looking to constrain the extra amount because I want to get the balance right. We must put in place the right measures that are needed to support the economy. A considerable fund will potentially be needed to do that, but, at the same time, we need to put in place measures that will be temporary and targeted in order that we will be in a position to move from that level...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I will correct one thing. The Deputy mentioned a deficit of €5 billion. That is not the case. We anticipate a swing of up to €5 billion to €6 billion if we were to go all the way to 1.5% of national income. The work on the composition of the additional measures is not yet done. I am engaged with the Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine, the Department of...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: At this point, we are talking about an amount in the hundreds of millions of euro. but we are in the early stages of confirming this with the Departments I have mentioned.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: The figures my Department have produced show that there are 55,000 jobs at risk. They are a mix of jobs not created and jobs lost. As we are not able to make a sectoral analysis with any degree of accuracy, I am not going to put figures in front of the committee that I will subsequently be unable to stand over. The supports that will be provided will vary in different parts of the economy....

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: There are other options we can look at that would have a beneficial effect in dealing with the potential shock we face. I have noted some of the analysis on the change in visitors to different parts of the country. Much of that is driven by consumer confidence in other countries and the income levels in those countries. We need to bear that in mind when examining the policy response....

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I absolutely understand all the sensitivities on the potential location of checks. This is the very reason why we are standing by the need for the backstop and standing over the principle of regulatory alignment. As the Deputy knows well, the way we can ensure that all our commitments to the Good Friday Agreement, to the need for frictionless trade on the island of Ireland and to our...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: Fiscal alignment between Northern Ireland and Ireland has not yet featured in my engagement with the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. I am well aware of the sensitivity of any decision that I make on carbon tax to petrol stations and local trade in Border counties. It is not that long ago that cross-Border shopping and trade flows were significant issues to our economy and had many impacts,...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I acknowledge the role Deputies Cowen and Michael McGrath are playing in framing the budget at a time of national risk. We all hope the risks will not materialise. Even though we are framing the budget on the basis that there will be a no-deal Brexit, of course, every effort will be made to avoid that taking place through the diplomatic and political work in which the Government is...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: I thank the Deputy for her questions. She is right that the benefits of non-indexation of the tax code amount to approximately €600 million per year. She will be aware that as they already form part of the summer economic statement, there is no additional money, as a result of the announcement I made last week. On the Deputy's second point about social welfare changes-----

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: It is certainly one of the sources. It is a fair point. On the Deputy's question about social welfare changes, I represent a constituency which is beside hers. I have many constituents for whom social welfare payments make a gigantic difference. They are not in work and the payments make a very big difference to their standard of living. Many of them do not have the opportunity to...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Paschal Donohoe: No, not off the top of my head. If in the course of this exchange, however, one of my officials tells me otherwise, I will share that with the Deputy.

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