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Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: It is clear from the budget the Minister is preparing that there will be a tax package and a social welfare package. The official statistics will show that we are in surplus, not a no-deal situation, where we will be in deficit, yet, as the Minister says, it is being framed as a no-deal budget. If it was really being framed as a no-deal budget, it would be very different because it would...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: I know that. That is why we are suggesting that it be moved into a contingency fund.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: IFAC, which considers the rules on spending, and some of the information we got from the Minister through freedom of information requests are very clear that it cannot be used in the context of Brexit. The language the Minister uses is very measured because he refers to the tail-risk Brexit, but the fund cannot be used for issues identified. Some of the documentation from the Department...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: Yes. There was €1.5 billion to go in at the end of the year and €500 million from next year's budget. Would it not be wise, given the political and economic likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, not to lodge that money with a fund when there is at best a question mark over our ability to use it for that, and create a fund instead that could be left in the surplus but that could be...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: Fine, we have argued about the design of the rainy day fund for a long time and I am encouraged by some of the commentary the Minister referred to. He should not lock down resources that may not be available to us if we need them for Brexit, because otherwise we will have to borrow those resources.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: We heard some discussion in the Chamber earlier today about the sector-specific analysis, but surely more analysis has been done, sector by sector, on a no-deal Brexit. I would find it scary to believe that everything that has been done has been published, as was suggested earlier. There has to be serious consideration given to the impact of no deal, sector by sector and region by region....

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: It is scary that there is not a sector-by-sector analysis and that we are not looking at the transport sector to ask what it will mean for HGVs, for instance. Even if one forgets about delays at the Border, which of themselves will cause serious problems, what else will Brexit bring to that sector? Where will there be job losses? How can we ensure that our goods will be transported, etc.?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: Yes, but when was that published? Was it in January of this year?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: My point is surely work is ongoing.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: I raised the duty-free issue with the Minister during the debate on the Brexit omnibus Bill was that of duty free. On that occasion we legislated for it but the Minister had had assurances from his counterpart, Philip Hammond, that the British Government would not go down the direction of a duty-free zone. That has obviously changed. At the time, the Minister clarified to the House that...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: So that includes alcohol.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: Finally, on the budget, since we last met at a committee, countless businesses and community organisations have closed their doors. They have closed because of the rip-off in insurance premiums and because certain insurance companies have withdrawn from the market. We know that approximately 16 companies that sell into Ireland will no longer be registered etc. as a consequence of Brexit but...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: The Minister needs to meet Insurance Ireland. That is what this sector demands.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: I have three quick questions. If the overrun in health stays at its current level - 5.8% was projected and 6.7% is the outturn - there will probably be an overrun of about €158 million. The impact on this is massive. It has been budgeted to recruit as many as 1,300 nurses, 100 of whom are in the north west, but the posts are not being filled. The list of people waiting more than 18...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: Yes.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: Yes. That is four years.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: The figures on page 26 are based on the baseline scenario and the table on page 27 indicates budgetary packages of €2.8 billion this year and €3.2 billion next year, followed by packages of €2.9 billion, €3.3 billion and €3.4 billion.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: Brexit will be terrible, particularly in certain sectors and regions. From a fiscal perspective, these figures are based on the outer range. We look at the Brexit impact from 0.5% to 1.5%. The €6 billion deficit is based on the outer limit of that.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: Okay. With a €3 billion package over the next five years and looking at what is at this stage the worst-case scenario of what we think a no-deal Brexit will be, the State's finances will be back in surplus by 2023. It will be back in surplus more comfortably in 2024. Is that correct?

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Pre-Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance (17 Sep 2019)

Pearse Doherty: I just wanted clarification on the point.

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