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Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: I must ask Dr. O'Toole to speed up as my time is limited.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: The ESRI is making allowances for the high number of commencements in 2023-24.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: Dr. Kelly mentioned downward pressures. Is it fair to say he is not overly confident regarding the predicted outturn for this year and he feels there are pressures coming on that figure?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: Is it fair to say the high number of commencements are probably the largest input into the Central Bank's predictions?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: In regard to financing, Dr. Kelly made reference to an additional €7 billion. The figure the Department of Finance has put out is that to get to 50,000, we need financing of approximately €20 billion. The State is putting up €7 billion. Will the Central Bank witnesses explain where they are coming from with the additional €7 billion? I ask the witnesses to be...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: I will go to the ESRI next as my time is tight. On the commentary regarding the rental market, Dr. O'Toole put it quite starkly in referring to a trade-off between protecting existing tenants and creating a conducive investment environment. Does he see any wriggle room around that or is it a stark choice between protecting affordability for current tenants versus what needs to be done to...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: The trade-off is a fact. Is there no formula we can come up with that creates protection for tenants and creates an environment that can attract investment?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: I will read the pledge. In accordance with Standing Orders, I wish to make the following declaration: I do solemnly declare that I will duly and faithfully and to the best of my knowledge and ability execute the office of Leas-Chathaoirleach of the Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage without fear or favour, apply the rules as laid down by the House in an impartial and fair...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: Very quickly please, Senator.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: Do we have five minutes in the second round?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: I ask the witnesses to be brief. Dr. Cassidy made reference to how equity had fallen off significantly in recent times. First, where does Ireland sit in terms of our public funding of housing? The ESRI made a statement on this in the past. Relatively speaking, we are investing €7 billion in housing. Where does that put Ireland as a country in terms of public investment? I wish to...

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: Dr. Kelly referred to downward pressures in respect of housing supply. Dr. Kelly's prediction for this year was 35,000 units but he felt they were downward pressures. What are the key downward pressures and what can we do to address them?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: How much of a factor do the witnesses think viability is? Developers argue much construction is not viable for them and that many development types, particularly apartments, are not viable.

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: The key issue in that regard is that the capital is tied up for longer before the developer can start selling units. This leads to my next question about the cost of finance for developers. What is it typically in Ireland right now? I know it depends on bank lenders and others. If I run a development company and am looking for finance, what is the average rate at present?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: Developers say it can be anything between 7% and 10%. Is that a ballpark reasonable estimate?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: It is a high cost of borrowing. Going back to apartments, if the developer's money is going to be tied up for longer, it is a factor. Is there any way to drive that cost down?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: I have question for the ESRI about labour constraints. If we want to get to the level of output we need, labour will become an increasing factor. What does the ESRI recommend to increase the labour supply for construction? Obviously there are apprenticeships and so on. Are there short-term measures?

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Challenges Relating to the Delivery of Housing: Discussion (Resumed) (27 May 2025)

Séamus McGrath: It is about intensification.

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