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Written Answers — Department of Finance: Departmental Transport (28 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: I wish to inform the Deputy that my Department does not own any vehicles. There are 17 bodies under the aegis of my Department, 3 of which own vehicles. These are the Central Bank, the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) and the Office of the Revenue Commissioners. The Central Bank has provided a high level estimate of €175k to replace 5 petrol and diesel vehicles with...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: I thank the Chairperson. I am pleased to have the opportunity to be here today to discuss the draft stability programme update, SPU. The SPU sets out the Government’s macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts for Ireland for the next five years. It will be submitted to the European Commission later this month. At the outset, I stress that this is a purely technical document, with the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: I thank the Deputy for his questions. Far from the Government looking to punish any parts of society or any citizens, the approach of the Government has been to sustain society while we have all been grappling with an economic crisis that has its origins in health and public health. That is why the Government has had the PUP in place for so long. We have sustained a higher level of income...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: A key feature of where we have been economically is that the country has been able to fund what we have done in the past year for two reasons. First, it is due to the support of the European Central Bank, ECB, and, second, when we came into this crisis, what we were collecting in taxation was approximately equal to what we were spending. Our national finances were in a position of broad...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: I thank the Deputy for his kind words. It is a challenge that we will face, as will every other economy that has been closed for a period and is beginning the process of reopening. In terms of where we are now, if he looks at where we were in 2020, we estimate that our household savings ratio, that is, the portion of income that is not being consumed, reached almost 24% across that year....

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: We implemented much of what was proposed by the group in the Finance Bill. There were some very small elements of what it proposed that we did not go with because I had a concern about the proportionality of it but the vast majority of what the TSG proposed in respect of the taxation of vehicles was implemented. In parallel to that we have expected increases in carbon taxation, which are...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: I believe that the figure for 2022 is actually €4 billion. The Government has not yet made a decision on the composition of that. That will have to be made on budget day. The Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform will have to engage with different Ministers regarding the composition of that for next year.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: That is correct and that is a corollary of the fact that the SPU is prepared on a no policy change basis. Currently, we have only made decisions on the PUP up to the end of this year so any decision on the payment for the rest of this year and even for next year will change those figures.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: The Minister, Deputy McGrath, looked at measures that would be needed, for example, to support semi-State companies, the continuation of social distancing within public transport and some of the measures that are in place in our schools and made a judgment on the need for that to continue into next year. That is related to decisions the Government has made that are implemented in our current...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: On the Deputy's point about employment, it does not assume the continuation of the EWSS, for example, next year. That is the case. The Deputy is correct with regard to employment. My expectation is that inside the €2.5 billion there would be figures that relate to health. That is a matter directly for the Minister, Deputy McGrath, but I will double-check that with him and confirm...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: The Government has not made a decision in that regard. We have said we want to provide clarity on income and business supports in the coming weeks. We have not made a decision on that but it is the case that over time, as our economy reopens, we will have to change these payments in a very careful way. For example, getting our national finances back into a healthy position and recognising...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: We expect an average rate of unemployment for this year of 11%. We expect a significant improvement on where we are at the moment. We expect total employment this year to grow by 80,000. Next year, we expect unemployment to fall to approximately 7%, with an average of 8% to 8.25% for the year overall. I do not have what that equals in terms of numbers of people.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: The way the Government dealt with that matter last year was, as we changed public health guidance to allow businesses to reopen, we would over time change some of the payments, for example, the PUP. That is what we did last year and the Government will have to carefully consider how we do this across this and next year. We are not in a position to continue to maintain very high levels of...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: The Government has not yet made a decision on what our medium-term budgetary anchor will be.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: I imagine we will aim to conclude on that work, as things stand now, before the summer.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: Yes. It is my aim to do a summer economic statement but if the SPU has taught me anything, it is how difficult it is to do that with all the uncertainty we are confronting at the moment. As things stand, it is my aim that we would do that.

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: I expect it will be higher than 3.5% but how much higher it will be depends on two factors, the first of which is the decisions the Government makes over time in the management of the Covid levels of expenditure we have. Second, it depends on the Estimates process and the work the Minister for Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform does. That work is yet to be done but I expect it will be...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: On the Deputy's second point, the Government will do what we can to speed up the delivery of the national broadband plan. The Deputy and I were involved in that decision in the previous Government and time has proven it to have been the correct decision. I understand that the difficulty in speeding it up is related not to funding or even to the contract but rather to the impact of the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: I absolutely understand we are facing an inflationary risk in the pricing of raw materials, an issue that has been raised with me by businesses. On the other hand, the great challenge we faced in construction over recent years concerned the degree to which construction was competing with other priorities apart from housing within the economy, such as the delivery of commercial property, the...

Committee on Budgetary Oversight: Draft Stability Programme Update: Engagement with Minister for Finance (27 Apr 2021)

Paschal Donohoe: I will indeed. I thank the Deputy for his contribution. The first thing I would say is that I never pretend for a moment that any decision I made is perfect. All I can do, which I do my best to do, is weigh up the pros and cons of every decision. I make a decision motivated by the public good and then justify that decision to the Oireachtas and to our country. It is in that spirit I will...

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